RESEARCH SAYS STOCK CONTROL SYSTEMS CAUSING CHAOS

December 5, 1997

  Warwick, England -- The newest computerized stock control systems are
literally causing chaos in company supply chains according to new research
published by Richard Wilding at the Warwick Manufacturing Group at the
University of Warwick. His new research shows how some of the latest
computerised inventory control systems used in industry, can actually lead
to stock control systems demonstrating many of the problems predicted by
chaos theory.

  Mathematicians use chaos theory to describe systems that seem to move at
random, even though they are based on fixed rules that in themselves
involve no element of chance. While the system is apparently stable and
predictable, in practice it may be extremely sensitive to small changes.

  These complex stock control systems attempt intricate predictions of
future stock needs but cannot cope with the chaos that can be caused by
small human errors, or short term market fluctuations. Even if the level of
customer demand is fixed at a certain level, the chaos that can be created
by the latest stock control systems can make it virtually impossible for
manufacturers to forecast requirements and can raise total supply chain
costs for companies by up to 500%. This comes on top of recent research
from America which demonstrated that 25% of managers create chaos through
their decision making behaviour.

  Richard Wilding said: "Increasingly complicated analysis and control
systems are being produced to aid the management of the supply chain. These
systems could actually be the cause of the uncertainty experienced by
managers. Simple lean approaches are the key to beating this problem, so
think twice before investing in complex software"

  Wilding's research finds that supply chain managers could be faced with
dramatic and unexpected changes caused by computerised inventory control
systems rather than changing customer demand. This means that short-term
forecasting is likely to prove more effective than long term planning, but
if long term plans are made they should reviewed regularly. The research
concludes that managers can reduce chaos by focusing on the customer and
communicating demand information as far upstream as possible.

  Preliminary results of Richard Wilding's research have recently been
published in Proceedings of the Institute of Logistics Research Conference
1997 Sept 1997 (Available from the Institute of Logistics). The full report
will be published in An investigation into the influence of chaos on
uncertainty within industrial supply chains PhD thesis, University of
Warwick.


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