Dan’s Cloudy Crystal Ball

By Daniel Reed, Microsoft Research

January 11, 2008

Research and Infrastructure Funding

As I write this, there is no joy in Mudville (U.S. science funding), as Casey (the university, national laboratory and technology industry community) has struck out in securing a substantive budget increase for the sciences. After the America COMPETES Act authorized major increases in 2007, with strong bipartisan support, we had high hopes for a corresponding appropriation. Alas, the omnibus appropriation bill includes little new money for science.

With a few notable exceptions, research and infrastructure funding will (at best) just keep pace with inflation. This does not bode well for computational and computer science. If you really want to feel depressed, read Norm Augustine’s new essay, Is America Falling Off the Flat Earth? This is a successor to the earlier Rising Storm report, and it is very sobering.

What can you do? First, don’t whine — that rarely impresses people in Washington. Rather, continue to make the case, via the venues and organizations where you are a member, that science and computing are critical enablers of economic growth, national innovation and education. Finally, it is especially important that we speak with a unified voice. A cacophony of confused messages will further delay the outcome we seek, for there are more supplicants and deserving ideas than available funding. As one Office of Management and Budget (OMB) examiner once remarked to me, “Rarely do I encounter people who say, ‘I’m dumb and I have too much money. Can you help me?'” We are definitely not dumb, and we absolutely have great ideas; we must keep doggedly pushing our message.

Coordinating Strategy and Spending

In addition to seeking new funding, we also face challenges in supporting our existing capabilities. As our HPC systems and software infrastructures have grown, so have our operations and maintenance costs. Gone are the days when a large system was 64 processors and an application was developed by a small research team. Today we are deploying systems with hundreds of thousands of processors and many petabytes of storage, executing software frameworks containing tens to hundreds of millions of lines of code. The research agendas of entire disciplines now depend on the long-term sustenance of this infrastructure. Simply put, computational science has become big science, with correspondingly large staffs and rising power, cooling and capital costs.

The National Science Foundation (NSF) and the NSF Office of Cyberinfrastructure (OCI) are struggling to balance community demands for new investments against infrastructure sustenance. For example, I believe over 80 percent of OCI’s budget is committed to extant projects, leaving little opportunity for new investment. Because so much of science now depends on computing, we must take a more holistic view of investment, examining scientific and technology priorities across all of the U.S. Federal agency portfolio and coordinating budgets accordingly. This is one of the key recommendations of the recent PCAST report on computing and a topic I discussed recently with Chris Greer, the new head of the National Coordination Office (NCO).

Outsourcing: Perhaps It Is Time?

In late November, I briefed the NSF OCI advisory committee on the PCAST report. The ensuing discussion centered on the rising academic cost of operating research computing infrastructure. The combination of rising power densities in racks and declining costs for blades means computing and storage clusters are multiplying across campuses at a stunning rate. Consequently, every academic CIO and chief research officer (CRO) I know is scrambling to coordinate and consolidate server closets and machine rooms for reasons of efficiency, security and simple economics.

This prompted an extended discussion with the OCI advisory committee about possible solutions, including outsourcing research infrastructure and data management to industrial partners. Lest this seem like a heretical notion, remember that some universities have already outsourced email, the lifeblood of any knowledge-driven organization. To be sure, there are serious privacy and security issues, as well as provisioning, quality of service and pricing considerations. However, I believe the idea deserves exploration.

Computing Clouds

All of this is part of the still ill-formed and evolving notion of cloud computing, where massive datacenters host storage farms and computing resources, with access via standard web APIs. In a very real sense, this is the second coming of Grids, but backed by more robust software and hardware of enormously larger scale. IBM, Google, Yahoo, Amazon and my new employer — Microsoft — are shaping this space, collectively investing more in infrastructure for Web services than we in the computational science community spend on HPC facilities.

I view this as the research computing equivalent of the fabless semiconductor firm, which focuses on design innovation and outsources chip fabrication to silicon foundries. This lets each group — the designers and the foundry operators — do what they do best and at the appropriate scale. Most of us operate HPC facilities out of necessity, not out of desire. They are, after all, the enablers of discovery, not the goal. (I do love big iron dearly, though, just like many of you.)

In the facility-less research computing model, researchers focus on the higher levels of the software stack — applications and innovation, not low-level infrastructure. Administrators, in turn, procure services from the providers based on capabilities and pricing. Finally, the providers deliver economies of scale and capabilities driven by a large market base.

This is not a one size fits all solution, and change always brings upsets. Remember, though, that there was a time (not long ago) when deploying commodity clusters for national production use was controversial. They were once viewed as too risky; now they are the norm. Technologies change, and we adapt accordingly. Having said that, I believe there will always be a place for purpose-built HPC facilities for cutting-edge computational science, just as large-scale experimental facilities are purpose-built for other sciences. However, day-to-day science may be better served by leveraging standard facilities and economies of scale. John West made some of these same points on insideHPC.com the other day.

Concluding Thoughts

I began on a low note, looking backward at our (currently) dismal state of research funding. Looking forward, I see great opportunities. We are living in a time of great technical ferment, with heterogeneous multicore chips coming sooner than most realize and the stunning growth of Web-delivered services and information. I am not yet sure what the future will bring, but the vision of a national Memex, Vannevar Bush’s 1940s dream of an information system capable of extending human capabilities, is within our reach.

—–

Daniel Reed is Microsoft’s Scalable and Multicore Computing Strategist and a member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST). The opinions expressed above are his, not necessarily those of Microsoft or the Federal government. Contact him at [email protected] or his blog at www.hpcdan.org.

Subscribe to HPCwire's Weekly Update!

Be the most informed person in the room! Stay ahead of the tech trends with industry updates delivered to you every week!

Empowering High-Performance Computing for Artificial Intelligence

April 19, 2024

Artificial intelligence (AI) presents some of the most challenging demands in information technology, especially concerning computing power and data movement. As a result of these challenges, high-performance computing Read more…

Kathy Yelick on Post-Exascale Challenges

April 18, 2024

With the exascale era underway, the HPC community is already turning its attention to zettascale computing, the next of the 1,000-fold performance leaps that have occurred about once a decade. With this in mind, the ISC Read more…

2024 Winter Classic: Texas Two Step

April 18, 2024

Texas Tech University. Their middle name is ‘tech’, so it’s no surprise that they’ve been fielding not one, but two teams in the last three Winter Classic cluster competitions. Their teams, dubbed Matador and Red Read more…

2024 Winter Classic: The Return of Team Fayetteville

April 18, 2024

Hailing from Fayetteville, NC, Fayetteville State University stayed under the radar in their first Winter Classic competition in 2022. Solid students for sure, but not a lot of HPC experience. All good. They didn’t Read more…

Software Specialist Horizon Quantum to Build First-of-a-Kind Hardware Testbed

April 18, 2024

Horizon Quantum Computing, a Singapore-based quantum software start-up, announced today it would build its own testbed of quantum computers, starting with use of Rigetti’s Novera 9-qubit QPU. The approach by a quantum Read more…

2024 Winter Classic: Meet Team Morehouse

April 17, 2024

Morehouse College? The university is well-known for their long list of illustrious graduates, the rigor of their academics, and the quality of the instruction. They were one of the first schools to sign up for the Winter Read more…

Kathy Yelick on Post-Exascale Challenges

April 18, 2024

With the exascale era underway, the HPC community is already turning its attention to zettascale computing, the next of the 1,000-fold performance leaps that ha Read more…

Software Specialist Horizon Quantum to Build First-of-a-Kind Hardware Testbed

April 18, 2024

Horizon Quantum Computing, a Singapore-based quantum software start-up, announced today it would build its own testbed of quantum computers, starting with use o Read more…

MLCommons Launches New AI Safety Benchmark Initiative

April 16, 2024

MLCommons, organizer of the popular MLPerf benchmarking exercises (training and inference), is starting a new effort to benchmark AI Safety, one of the most pre Read more…

Exciting Updates From Stanford HAI’s Seventh Annual AI Index Report

April 15, 2024

As the AI revolution marches on, it is vital to continually reassess how this technology is reshaping our world. To that end, researchers at Stanford’s Instit Read more…

Intel’s Vision Advantage: Chips Are Available Off-the-Shelf

April 11, 2024

The chip market is facing a crisis: chip development is now concentrated in the hands of the few. A confluence of events this week reminded us how few chips Read more…

The VC View: Quantonation’s Deep Dive into Funding Quantum Start-ups

April 11, 2024

Yesterday Quantonation — which promotes itself as a one-of-a-kind venture capital (VC) company specializing in quantum science and deep physics  — announce Read more…

Nvidia’s GTC Is the New Intel IDF

April 9, 2024

After many years, Nvidia's GPU Technology Conference (GTC) was back in person and has become the conference for those who care about semiconductors and AI. I Read more…

Google Announces Homegrown ARM-based CPUs 

April 9, 2024

Google sprang a surprise at the ongoing Google Next Cloud conference by introducing its own ARM-based CPU called Axion, which will be offered to customers in it Read more…

Nvidia H100: Are 550,000 GPUs Enough for This Year?

August 17, 2023

The GPU Squeeze continues to place a premium on Nvidia H100 GPUs. In a recent Financial Times article, Nvidia reports that it expects to ship 550,000 of its lat Read more…

Synopsys Eats Ansys: Does HPC Get Indigestion?

February 8, 2024

Recently, it was announced that Synopsys is buying HPC tool developer Ansys. Started in Pittsburgh, Pa., in 1970 as Swanson Analysis Systems, Inc. (SASI) by John Swanson (and eventually renamed), Ansys serves the CAE (Computer Aided Engineering)/multiphysics engineering simulation market. Read more…

Intel’s Server and PC Chip Development Will Blur After 2025

January 15, 2024

Intel's dealing with much more than chip rivals breathing down its neck; it is simultaneously integrating a bevy of new technologies such as chiplets, artificia Read more…

Choosing the Right GPU for LLM Inference and Training

December 11, 2023

Accelerating the training and inference processes of deep learning models is crucial for unleashing their true potential and NVIDIA GPUs have emerged as a game- Read more…

Baidu Exits Quantum, Closely Following Alibaba’s Earlier Move

January 5, 2024

Reuters reported this week that Baidu, China’s giant e-commerce and services provider, is exiting the quantum computing development arena. Reuters reported � Read more…

Comparing NVIDIA A100 and NVIDIA L40S: Which GPU is Ideal for AI and Graphics-Intensive Workloads?

October 30, 2023

With long lead times for the NVIDIA H100 and A100 GPUs, many organizations are looking at the new NVIDIA L40S GPU, which it’s a new GPU optimized for AI and g Read more…

Shutterstock 1179408610

Google Addresses the Mysteries of Its Hypercomputer 

December 28, 2023

When Google launched its Hypercomputer earlier this month (December 2023), the first reaction was, "Say what?" It turns out that the Hypercomputer is Google's t Read more…

AMD MI3000A

How AMD May Get Across the CUDA Moat

October 5, 2023

When discussing GenAI, the term "GPU" almost always enters the conversation and the topic often moves toward performance and access. Interestingly, the word "GPU" is assumed to mean "Nvidia" products. (As an aside, the popular Nvidia hardware used in GenAI are not technically... Read more…

Leading Solution Providers

Contributors

Shutterstock 1606064203

Meta’s Zuckerberg Puts Its AI Future in the Hands of 600,000 GPUs

January 25, 2024

In under two minutes, Meta's CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, laid out the company's AI plans, which included a plan to build an artificial intelligence system with the eq Read more…

China Is All In on a RISC-V Future

January 8, 2024

The state of RISC-V in China was discussed in a recent report released by the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. The report, entitled "E Read more…

Shutterstock 1285747942

AMD’s Horsepower-packed MI300X GPU Beats Nvidia’s Upcoming H200

December 7, 2023

AMD and Nvidia are locked in an AI performance battle – much like the gaming GPU performance clash the companies have waged for decades. AMD has claimed it Read more…

DoD Takes a Long View of Quantum Computing

December 19, 2023

Given the large sums tied to expensive weapon systems – think $100-million-plus per F-35 fighter – it’s easy to forget the U.S. Department of Defense is a Read more…

Nvidia’s New Blackwell GPU Can Train AI Models with Trillions of Parameters

March 18, 2024

Nvidia's latest and fastest GPU, codenamed Blackwell, is here and will underpin the company's AI plans this year. The chip offers performance improvements from Read more…

Eyes on the Quantum Prize – D-Wave Says its Time is Now

January 30, 2024

Early quantum computing pioneer D-Wave again asserted – that at least for D-Wave – the commercial quantum era has begun. Speaking at its first in-person Ana Read more…

GenAI Having Major Impact on Data Culture, Survey Says

February 21, 2024

While 2023 was the year of GenAI, the adoption rates for GenAI did not match expectations. Most organizations are continuing to invest in GenAI but are yet to Read more…

The GenAI Datacenter Squeeze Is Here

February 1, 2024

The immediate effect of the GenAI GPU Squeeze was to reduce availability, either direct purchase or cloud access, increase cost, and push demand through the roof. A secondary issue has been developing over the last several years. Even though your organization secured several racks... Read more…

  • arrow
  • Click Here for More Headlines
  • arrow
HPCwire