The Shape of Enterprise Cloud Models in 2020

By Nicole Hemsoth

June 11, 2010

If you predicted out loud that there would be hybrids everywhere in the year 2020, many within earshot would likely agree with you — that is if you were talking about automobiles. According to the research firm BroadGroup, however, the hybrids that will be taking over are, of course, hybrid clouds in the enterprise. And if their speculations are correct, there’s going to be a massive migration underway over the next ten years.

According to the most recent report released from the European analysts, private clouds in the enterprise environment are merely a stepping stone that will usher enterprises into a future of hybrid clouds as a vast majority — in other words, now is just the beginning test phase of a much larger movement of nearly all non-critical workloads into large public clouds.

As Few as 10 Percent of Applications Will Remain in Private Clouds in 2020?

Stating that clouds of all varieties will find their way into nearly every enterprise vertical in the coming years is not a new prediction by any means. Despite all the chatter, few have been willing to quantify this movement or place real figures into the claims. What was most striking about BroadGroup’s report wasn’t the general projection about cloud movement, it was the specificity of their predictions.

In its public release, BroadGroup’s made the concrete statement that “by 2020, for the majority of enterprises, as little as 10 percent of applications will remain in private clouds. These applications will be core or critical to the business. Non-critical applications will be provisioned via public cloud computing services or via virtual private clouds on public service infrastructures” although it is noted that the main exception will be in financial services and central government.”

So in other words, the in-house cluster persists because enterprises, even in the (not so distant) future, are going to be wary of the public cloud for critical elements of their operations, right? In terms of clouds ever overcoming security barriers, this is a bleak view when coupled with such optimistic projections.

To get more information about how BroadGroup arrived at this estimate of the hybrid cloud coup, I discussed the topic with the author of the report, Marion Howard Healy shortly after the public release. Although it may seem a little nitpicky, the public release said that 10 percent of applications will remain in the private cloud. For some reason, using a “will” versus a “might” kind of makes a difference. I wasn’t necessarily taking her to task about this issue so much at trying to get at the heart of such certainty.

Of those figures, certainties and beliefs based on the BroadGroup’s study, which is entitled “Competing in the Clouds: Emerging Strategies for Enterprise Data Centers“, Healy stated:

I am not sure what’s gone out, but I qualified that in certain statements as little as 10 percent could remain in private clouds — core critical applications or virtual private clouds. I think virtual private clouds in Europe are an important movement; people in Europe are used to using virtual private networks and I think as things develop and more in Europe provide cloud services then my belief is that companies will become more comfortable with moving as long as it’s in a virtual private environment.

I must be candid — I too have trouble with that statement too as it might be overly optimistic. But I do think if you qualify it there’s no reason why, if you’re looking at the whole gamut from SMEs up to large corporate, then that could be quite a valid statement but if you’re looking at just corporate then it’s a perfectly valid statement to make.

Since that’s gone out, I wish the “could” went out other than the “will” but I think by 2020 if you look back 10 years at what’s happened in terms of Internet and social media, innovation and technology time cycles are diminishing things are moving faster, it’s not unrealistic to think that in 10 yers the datacenter and IT marketplace will change significantly from this moment. IT are traditional technology people and new people are coming in with recognition of the internet which will speed the willingness to engage.

Healy continued her clarification about the possibilities of hybrid cloud taking shape as the dominant cloud model in enterprise by making a parallel to the initial fear surrounding early use of credit cards for online transactions. At first, everyone was worried about what could happen if they sent their financial and personal information out into this strange “inter net,” but as it grew more common and regulations and standards were developed to safeguard consumer interest, it rather quickly became as acceptable as paying with a physical card at any store.

Just like we know there are risks with credit cards out there, vendors manage these risks and it becomes a norm — I do stand behind some of that statement. The other thing that’s key for that to happen is for standardization and interoperability, trust, security, and there are bodies who are working to put best practices in place, and that’s important — this standardization to help trust.

On the one hand, Healy is suggesting that as clouds become more common and safeguards are in place, moving out to the public cloud won’t be a concern. The problem with this statement is that it negates their other statement that companies will never let go of physical datacenters because they don’t trust the cloud. So this leaves us back at square one in the entire enterprise cloud debate — which is, dramatic adoption rates or stifling stagnation for years despite the possibilities cloud could provide?

What This (Will) (Could) Might Mean for the Enterprise Datacenter

It seems that there is still a certain traditionalism at play in these predictions since the report contends that enterprises will never let their important data out of the firewall. If this is the case, then what is the future of cloud computing in the enterprise if everyone is climbing about the Migration Express with no real plans to adopt it fully? According to Marion Howard Healy, the culprit here is exactly what you probably anticipated — security, data movement, compliance and regulation. It’s as though the report sees no solution that will be “good enough” to allay concerns enough to make public cloud a viable option.

Barriers to migrating to private cloud are convincing — the biggest is around trust and security of the new technologies. In terms of using public cloud services and where your data is located for European users in part because of our data protection legislation in Europe — that’s one challenge. I think overall one of the biggest challenges that some don’t understand and some have faced is the move to IT as a kind of support mechanism inside companies to IT as a service and the provision of IT as a new consumption model; it implies all sorts of new challenges if they go into their own private cloud and understanding costs and how to charge back and. Change of change of culture, mindset and operating style.

Differences Across the Pond for Enterprise Cloud?

During the discussion with BroadGroup’s Marion Howard Healy, the theme of Europe and America’s differences in cloud adoption models continued to surface. She suggests that the differences that exist in terms of not only level of adoption but the type are rooted in differing regulation practices and standards.

Contracts, SLAs are a big sticking point in Europe and many are testing the water; putting non-critical into public clouds (test and development a big one here and CRM) in terms of infrastructure though it’s a harder thing to try to do. As companies get more into this and more things arrive, the contractural terms need to be in synch and getting this all in order is a challenge.

I am not sure in terms of data protection from the U.S. perspective looking to us, but from Europe looking over to the U.S. the us patriot act worries people in Europe in terms of “if I put my data out into a center in the U.S. I don’t know where my data is…where does it land? In terms of the difference, the issue is about data protection. There are difference in terms of willingness to use it, this is more established on your side than ours but in terms of managed service providers moving up the value chain and offering cloud services beginning at the server arms and resource pools, in Europe that’s a stepping stone to moving into the cloud but in conjunction with those who are established in the marketplace so we’re not ging to Amazon or other big suppliers, but those who you know and trust already. Amazon is trustworthy but people have a perception that SLAs are different and the security is slightly different. For instance, as I heard at a discussion in February they were looking at security on the application level whereas people here look at it on the firewall level.

Viva La Datacenter

Based on their findings, which were formed from profiles and interviews with around a dozen large vendors in Europe and the United States as well as discussions with end users at events, BroadGroup contends that in five years, the sheer number of datacenters will dwindle, even if the enterprise is not already making use of public clouds. This is because of a projection that companies will need to use third-party datacenters and collocation providers to house their infrastructure so that they are able to benefit from the larger economies of scale model that is shifting IT as a whole — at least in the verticals where security might be less of a concern (simulation and modeling, digital content creation, testing and development and so on). What this means is that there could be growth for hosted managed service providers, especially if creating a solid foundation of trust and reliability are at the top of any provider’s list — in practice rather than rhetoric, of course. This will not just be the case for large datacenters either; BroadGroup contends that “there will be strong growth in the number of medium-sized datacenters providing access to pooled resources for local community and specific sector needs.”

The Metaphorical Hybrid

To bring it back to the hybrid car metaphor, let’s make the same claim — by 2010 as little as 10 percent of all cars on the road will be non-hybrids or other sort of dramatically different vehicle than the majority now. Yes, it’s a completely different industry with radically different considerations, but it nonetheless provides us with an interesting point of contention: in a rapidly-evolving marketplace, how much change can we realistically expect in one short decade? After all, with the right incentives (which are so often rooted in cost) who’s to say that such a dramatic shift couldn’t occur? Distinctions about what is possible are important to make now—whether they’re wildly speculative or on the mark doesn’t matter as much as the fact that the discussion persists about what is possible in terms of growth.

Subscribe to HPCwire's Weekly Update!

Be the most informed person in the room! Stay ahead of the tech trends with industy updates delivered to you every week!

Geospatial Data Research Leverages GPUs

August 17, 2017

MapD Technologies, the GPU-accelerated database specialist, said it is working with university researchers on leveraging graphics processors to advance geospatial analytics. The San Francisco-based company is collabor Read more…

By George Leopold

Intel, NERSC and University Partners Launch New Big Data Center

August 17, 2017

A collaboration between the Department of Energy’s National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), Intel and five Intel Parallel Computing Centers (IPCCs) has resulted in a new Big Data Center (BDC) that Read more…

By Linda Barney

Google Releases Deeplearn.js to Further Democratize Machine Learning

August 17, 2017

Spreading the use of machine learning tools is one of the goals of Google’s PAIR (People + AI Research) initiative, which was introduced in early July. Last week the cloud giant released deeplearn.js as part of that in Read more…

By John Russell

HPE Extreme Performance Solutions

Leveraging Deep Learning for Fraud Detection

Advancements in computing technologies and the expanding use of e-commerce platforms have dramatically increased the risk of fraud for financial services companies and their customers. Read more…

Spoiler Alert: Glimpse Next Week’s Solar Eclipse Via Simulation from TACC, SDSC, and NASA

August 17, 2017

Can’t wait to see next week’s solar eclipse? You can at least catch glimpses of what scientists expect it will look like. A team from Predictive Science Inc. (PSI), based in San Diego, working with Stampede2 at the Read more…

By John Russell

Microsoft Bolsters Azure With Cloud HPC Deal

August 15, 2017

Microsoft has acquired cloud computing software vendor Cycle Computing in a move designed to bring orchestration tools along with high-end computing access capabilities to the cloud. Terms of the acquisition were not disclosed. Read more…

By George Leopold

HPE Ships Supercomputer to Space Station, Final Destination Mars

August 14, 2017

With a manned mission to Mars on the horizon, the demand for space-based supercomputing is at hand. Today HPE and NASA sent the first off-the-shelf HPC system i Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

AMD EPYC Video Takes Aim at Intel’s Broadwell

August 14, 2017

Let the benchmarking begin. Last week, AMD posted a YouTube video in which one of its EPYC-based systems outperformed a ‘comparable’ Intel Broadwell-based s Read more…

By John Russell

Deep Learning Thrives in Cancer Moonshot

August 8, 2017

The U.S. War on Cancer, certainly a worthy cause, is a collection of programs stretching back more than 40 years and abiding under many banners. The latest is t Read more…

By John Russell

IBM Raises the Bar for Distributed Deep Learning

August 8, 2017

IBM is announcing today an enhancement to its PowerAI software platform aimed at facilitating the practical scaling of AI models on today’s fastest GPUs. Scal Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

IBM Storage Breakthrough Paves Way for 330TB Tape Cartridges

August 3, 2017

IBM announced yesterday a new record for magnetic tape storage that it says will keep tape storage density on a Moore's law-like path far into the next decade. Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

AMD Stuffs a Petaflops of Machine Intelligence into 20-Node Rack

August 1, 2017

With its Radeon “Vega” Instinct datacenter GPUs and EPYC “Naples” server chips entering the market this summer, AMD has positioned itself for a two-head Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Cray Moves to Acquire the Seagate ClusterStor Line

July 28, 2017

This week Cray announced that it is picking up Seagate's ClusterStor HPC storage array business for an undisclosed sum. "In short we're effectively transitioning the bulk of the ClusterStor product line to Cray," said CEO Peter Ungaro. Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Nvidia’s Mammoth Volta GPU Aims High for AI, HPC

May 10, 2017

At Nvidia's GPU Technology Conference (GTC17) in San Jose, Calif., this morning, CEO Jensen Huang announced the company's much-anticipated Volta architecture a Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

How ‘Knights Mill’ Gets Its Deep Learning Flops

June 22, 2017

Intel, the subject of much speculation regarding the delayed, rewritten or potentially canceled “Aurora” contract (the Argonne Lab part of the CORAL “ Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Reinders: “AVX-512 May Be a Hidden Gem” in Intel Xeon Scalable Processors

June 29, 2017

Imagine if we could use vector processing on something other than just floating point problems.  Today, GPUs and CPUs work tirelessly to accelerate algorithms Read more…

By James Reinders

Quantum Bits: D-Wave and VW; Google Quantum Lab; IBM Expands Access

March 21, 2017

For a technology that’s usually characterized as far off and in a distant galaxy, quantum computing has been steadily picking up steam. Just how close real-wo Read more…

By John Russell

Nvidia Responds to Google TPU Benchmarking

April 10, 2017

Nvidia highlights strengths of its newest GPU silicon in response to Google's report on the performance and energy advantages of its custom tensor processor. Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Russian Researchers Claim First Quantum-Safe Blockchain

May 25, 2017

The Russian Quantum Center today announced it has overcome the threat of quantum cryptography by creating the first quantum-safe blockchain, securing cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, along with classified government communications and other sensitive digital transfers. Read more…

By Doug Black

HPC Compiler Company PathScale Seeks Life Raft

March 23, 2017

HPCwire has learned that HPC compiler company PathScale has fallen on difficult times and is asking the community for help or actively seeking a buyer for its a Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Trump Budget Targets NIH, DOE, and EPA; No Mention of NSF

March 16, 2017

President Trump’s proposed U.S. fiscal 2018 budget issued today sharply cuts science spending while bolstering military spending as he promised during the cam Read more…

By John Russell

Leading Solution Providers

Groq This: New AI Chips to Give GPUs a Run for Deep Learning Money

April 24, 2017

CPUs and GPUs, move over. Thanks to recent revelations surrounding Google’s new Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), the computing world appears to be on the cusp of Read more…

By Alex Woodie

CPU-based Visualization Positions for Exascale Supercomputing

March 16, 2017

In this contributed perspective piece, Intel’s Jim Jeffers makes the case that CPU-based visualization is now widely adopted and as such is no longer a contrarian view, but is rather an exascale requirement. Read more…

By Jim Jeffers, Principal Engineer and Engineering Leader, Intel

Google Debuts TPU v2 and will Add to Google Cloud

May 25, 2017

Not long after stirring attention in the deep learning/AI community by revealing the details of its Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), Google last week announced the Read more…

By John Russell

MIT Mathematician Spins Up 220,000-Core Google Compute Cluster

April 21, 2017

On Thursday, Google announced that MIT math professor and computational number theorist Andrew V. Sutherland had set a record for the largest Google Compute Engine (GCE) job. Sutherland ran the massive mathematics workload on 220,000 GCE cores using preemptible virtual machine instances. Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Six Exascale PathForward Vendors Selected; DoE Providing $258M

June 15, 2017

The much-anticipated PathForward awards for hardware R&D in support of the Exascale Computing Project were announced today with six vendors selected – AMD Read more…

By John Russell

Top500 Results: Latest List Trends and What’s in Store

June 19, 2017

Greetings from Frankfurt and the 2017 International Supercomputing Conference where the latest Top500 list has just been revealed. Although there were no major Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

IBM Clears Path to 5nm with Silicon Nanosheets

June 5, 2017

Two years since announcing the industry’s first 7nm node test chip, IBM and its research alliance partners GlobalFoundries and Samsung have developed a proces Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Messina Update: The US Path to Exascale in 16 Slides

April 26, 2017

Paul Messina, director of the U.S. Exascale Computing Project, provided a wide-ranging review of ECP’s evolving plans last week at the HPC User Forum. Read more…

By John Russell

  • arrow
  • Click Here for More Headlines
  • arrow
Share This