Around the HPC World in 81 Slides with IDC

By John Russell

June 21, 2016

IDC presented its annual HPC Update at ISC yesterday. As usual it was a whirlwind tour encompassing HPC market data, technology trends, new IDC initiatives, announcement of the ISC16 Innovation Award recipients, and an update on IDC’s DOE-funded study to demonstrate HPC’s ROI. Small wonder it required an 81-slide deck with Earl Joseph and Bob Sorensen of IDC ably sharing the presenter duties.

Before plunging into the details here are a few key summary bullets:

  • 2015 was an excellent year (11 percent revenue growth) but 2016 is likely to be only “OK’. That said, HPC remains a growth market with the migration of HPC to the cloud and growing recognition of HPC’s strategic value as key market drivers. The forecast for 2015-2020 server growth, however, is a modest 5.9 percent.
  • Vendor positions “shifted greatly” and will keep shuffling according IDC. This year’s winner in supercomputers is Hewlett Packard Enterprise among named vendors while the unglamorous ‘Other’ category, a bit of a catchall bucket, is growing in size and impact reported IDC. Joseph said IDC is thinking about identifying some of the companies lumped together in the category.
  • The formative HPDA continues its growth and will expand vendor opportunities, said Joseph. So will machine learning, cognitive computing, and IoT. Encouragingly HPC ROI numbers are even higher than first indicated in IDC’s pilot study – the latest data suggest $1 invested produces $673 in revenue and $44 in profits (or savings) though Joseph added a caution. On the downside, software remains the number one roadblock for users, cluster management is still not trivial, and
  • Here comes China. Rumors had swirled for some time but the sudden reality of China’s new supercomputer (the Sunway TaihuLight system, 40,960 nodes and 10,649,600 cores and 1.31 PB of memory) appearing atop the latest Top500 list will cause consternation in many quarters. The new computing colossus is also complicating IDC’s efforts to size the supercomputer market because IDC isn’t sure how to count it, says Joseph. No matter how it ends up being counted, it changes the landscape.

IDC.ISC.HPC SERVER MKTHere’s a quick look at IDC’s top line HPC revenue numbers. 2015 server market sales are shown on the first slide followed by IDC’s five-year forecast below. The trend moving forward is positive but hardly bullish.

In terms of the overall HPC market, storage is still the fastest growing segment. IDC estimate 2015 revenue at $4.7B growing to $6.7B in 2019 – that’s 9.4 percent CAGR and indicative of the growth of big data and HPDA requirements. Servers and services are forecast to grow 7.7percent over the same time period. Virtually no growth is forecast for any server segment for the 2019-2020 period pulling down its five-year growth average to 5.9 percent as noted earlier.

Joseph noted the supercomputer segment in particular poses several challenges in characterizing. Sales cycles are variable and one or two big contracts can change revenue totals. The supercomputer market sales curve still has that roller coaster shape. “If you look at just the top three or four supercomputers sold each year, that’s what is causing all the variation here,” he said.

Taking about Sunway, he said “There are a number of definitions as to how it fits our data structure and we have to determine was it actually sold to somebody or was it self-built. At the moment it looks like it might have been self built. If it is self built it doesn’t go into our data structure because we don’t track things that are not built by [one party] and then sold to someone else.” He says it will be a month before they sort how to account for Sunway – if it is not included the segment will show no growth in 2016.

IDC.ISC.WW HPC SERVER FORECAST

HPE/HP (2015 sales) led the pack of ten named supercomputer suppliers with $1.2B. Cray was nearest ($583M), followed by Lenovo ($391M), NEC ($138M), Fujitsu ($106M), SGI ($88M), Dell ($54M), Bull Atos ($41M) and Sugon ($13M). The ‘Other’ category was actually third with $422M.

You can see quickly see how big the ‘other’ category has become, says Sorensen adding, “It’s a collection of vendors that are either too small to be included individually or who don’t want their actual numbers broken out in any great detail. What we are finding is this other category is growing rather aggressively.”

Having followed the HPDA market for time now, IDC continues to refine how it tracks the space. Joseph said IDC recently begun characterizing HPDA in four categories:

  • Fraud and anomaly detection. This “horizontal” workload segment centers around identifying harmful or potentially harmful patterns and causes using graph analysis, semantic analysis, or other high performance analytics techniques. The patterns may point to fraud, which is the deceptive exploitation or annotation of data for wrongful or illegal personal gain, or they may point to cyber security crime or insider threats, significant errors, or other anomalies that may deserve further investigation.
  • Marketing. This segment covers the use of HPDA to promote products or services, typically using complex algorithms to discern potential customers’ demographics, buying preferences and habits.
  • Business intelligence. The workload segment uses HPDA to identify opportunities to advance the market position and competitiveness of businesses, by better understanding themselves, their competitors, and the evolving dynamics of the markets they participate in.
  • Other Commercial HPDA. This catchall segment includes all commercial HPDA workloads other than the three just described. Over time, IDC expects some of these workloads to become significant enough to split out of this “other” category and command their own segments. An example of such a high-potential workload is the use of HPDA to manage large IT infrastructures, ranging from on premise data centers to public clouds and Internet-of-Things (IoT) infrastructures.

Joseph said IDC plans to add segments but how many and when isn’t set.

There were few surprises on IDC hit list of important technologies. Despite Intel’s current dominance in the processor world, a point hammered home at ISC this week with release of Xeon Phi/KNL to general availability, the camp of alternatives continues to grow rather than shrink. The interconnect battle between Intel Omni-Path and Mellanox InfiniBand is also now in full swing said Sorensen. Shown here are some of the technologies IDC.ISC.TOP TECH TRENDSIDC is watching closely

Software challenges are perhaps even more vexing, said Sorensen noting wryly the rush to use the word open – as in OpenHPC, OpenCL, Open ACC, Open Stack, Open Power, an Open Compute (his list).

IDC touched on two new DOE-funded initiatives it’s undertaking. One is a program to track exascale activity around the world. Sorensen explained, “[The idea] is to track, on a quarterly basis, where are the projects, who are the principal investigators, what’s the level of funding, what are the research goals.”

As part of the grant, IDC is supposed to share its results with the HPC community. “Part of the reason this is being made available to the whole community is to help government users and vendor figure out where is the best place to make an R&D investment. The tracking will show holes, where things are missing,” he said.

The mechanism hasn’t yet been sorted out but IDC plans to create a data structure and repository that’s updated every quarter and is made available. “We’d very much like to do it by Supercomputing (November) but I have to say I think we’re going to miss that by about a month.”

The other effort is around cyber security. IDC has already done one study examining problems and practices in how organizations handle cyber security. As described by Sorensen, the results of the early work are not especially comforting. For example, the study reveled that detecting a breach can take a couple of years from the time of its occurrence. “Worse,” said Sorensen, “when something like that happens, rather than fix the problem, organization often simply opt by more insurance.”

IDC.ISC.SECURITYThe first study was done in the summer of 2015. This next phase will drill down further in an effort to identify effective technologies and best practices. Cyber security isn’t necessarily an HPC issue, agrees Sorensen, but it usually is a HPDA issue and often other HPC elements can be deployed. A few conclusions from the first study are shown here.

The 2016 study is designed “to obtain relevant, useful information from large US organizations concerning their cyber security challenges and how they’re addressing those challenges from strategic, proactive, reactive, and crisis management perspectives.” A critical element in the study, says IDC, is exploring the role that HPDA/Big Data analytics can play in advanced cyber security.

Besides discussing the new DOE sponsored programs, IDC also provided an update on its various efforts to establish ROI metrics for HPC. This project has been going on for some time. The early pilot program produced very promising results (HPC ROI: Invest a Dollar to Make $500-plus Reports IDC). IDC has since moved been working on building up the number of samples in the study to refine the results and increase confidence in them.

IDC.ISC.ROIThe new results shown were rather dramatically higher that the pilot, making some in the audience wondered how that could be. Joseph agreed.

“The initial work was to create the model. Now we are at the large scale data collection [stage],” said Joseph. “Our feeling right now is we are going to need about 2000 samples” to have solid confidence in the results. Even so, said Joseph, DOE was now encouraging IDC “to getting the data out to the community more frequently and to create much more information about HPC’s job creation potential.”

Subscribe to HPCwire's Weekly Update!

Be the most informed person in the room! Stay ahead of the tech trends with industy updates delivered to you every week!

Is Data Science the Fourth Pillar of the Scientific Method?

April 18, 2019

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang revived a decade-old debate last month when he said that modern data science (AI plus HPC) has become the fourth pillar of the scientific method. While some disagree with the notion that statistic Read more…

By Alex Woodie

At ASF 2019: The Virtuous Circle of Big Data, AI and HPC

April 18, 2019

We've entered a new phase in IT -- in the world, really -- where the combination of big data, artificial intelligence, and high performance computing is pushing the bounds of what's possible in business and science, in w Read more…

By Alex Woodie with Doug Black and Tiffany Trader

Google Open Sources TensorFlow Version of MorphNet DL Tool

April 18, 2019

Designing optimum deep neural networks remains a non-trivial exercise. “Given the large search space of possible architectures, designing a network from scratch for your specific application can be prohibitively expens Read more…

By John Russell

HPE Extreme Performance Solutions

HPE and Intel® Omni-Path Architecture: How to Power a Cloud

Learn how HPE and Intel® Omni-Path Architecture provide critical infrastructure for leading Nordic HPC provider’s HPCFLOW cloud service.

powercloud_blog.jpgFor decades, HPE has been at the forefront of high-performance computing, and we’ve powered some of the fastest and most robust supercomputers in the world. Read more…

IBM Accelerated Insights

Bridging HPC and Cloud Native Development with Kubernetes

The HPC community has historically developed its own specialized software stack including schedulers, filesystems, developer tools, container technologies tuned for performance and large-scale on-premises deployments. Read more…

Interview with 2019 Person to Watch Michela Taufer

April 18, 2019

Today, as part of our ongoing HPCwire People to Watch focus series, we are highlighting our interview with 2019 Person to Watch Michela Taufer. Michela -- the General Chair of SC19 -- is an ACM Distinguished Scientist. Read more…

By HPCwire Editorial Team

At ASF 2019: The Virtuous Circle of Big Data, AI and HPC

April 18, 2019

We've entered a new phase in IT -- in the world, really -- where the combination of big data, artificial intelligence, and high performance computing is pushing Read more…

By Alex Woodie with Doug Black and Tiffany Trader

Interview with 2019 Person to Watch Michela Taufer

April 18, 2019

Today, as part of our ongoing HPCwire People to Watch focus series, we are highlighting our interview with 2019 Person to Watch Michela Taufer. Michela -- the Read more…

By HPCwire Editorial Team

Intel Gold U-Series SKUs Reveal Single Socket Intentions

April 18, 2019

Intel plans to jump into the single socket market with a portion of its just announced Cascade Lake microprocessor line according to one media report. This isn Read more…

By John Russell

BSC Researchers Shrink Floating Point Formats to Accelerate Deep Neural Network Training

April 15, 2019

Sometimes calculating solutions as precisely as a computer can wastes more CPU resources than is necessary. A case in point is with deep learning. In early stag Read more…

By Ken Strandberg

Intel Extends FPGA Ecosystem with 10nm Agilex

April 11, 2019

The insatiable appetite for higher throughput and lower latency – particularly where edge analytics and AI, network functions, or for a range of datacenter ac Read more…

By Doug Black

Nvidia Doubles Down on Medical AI

April 9, 2019

Nvidia is collaborating with medical groups to push GPU-powered AI tools into clinical settings, including radiology and drug discovery. The GPU leader said Monday it will collaborate with the American College of Radiology (ACR) to provide clinicians with its Clara AI tool kit. The partnership would allow radiologists to leverage AI techniques for diagnostic imaging using their own clinical data. Read more…

By George Leopold

Digging into MLPerf Benchmark Suite to Inform AI Infrastructure Decisions

April 9, 2019

With machine learning and deep learning storming into the datacenter, the new challenge is optimizing infrastructure choices to support diverse ML and DL workfl Read more…

By John Russell

AI and Enterprise Datacenters Boost HPC Server Revenues Past Expectations – Hyperion

April 9, 2019

Building on the big year of 2017 and spurred in part by the convergence of AI and HPC, global revenue for high performance servers jumped 15.6 percent last year Read more…

By Doug Black

The Case Against ‘The Case Against Quantum Computing’

January 9, 2019

It’s not easy to be a physicist. Richard Feynman (basically the Jimi Hendrix of physicists) once said: “The first principle is that you must not fool yourse Read more…

By Ben Criger

Why Nvidia Bought Mellanox: ‘Future Datacenters Will Be…Like High Performance Computers’

March 14, 2019

“Future datacenters of all kinds will be built like high performance computers,” said Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang during a phone briefing on Monday after Nvidia revealed scooping up the high performance networking company Mellanox for $6.9 billion. Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

ClusterVision in Bankruptcy, Fate Uncertain

February 13, 2019

ClusterVision, European HPC specialists that have built and installed over 20 Top500-ranked systems in their nearly 17-year history, appear to be in the midst o Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Intel Reportedly in $6B Bid for Mellanox

January 30, 2019

The latest rumors and reports around an acquisition of Mellanox focus on Intel, which has reportedly offered a $6 billion bid for the high performance interconn Read more…

By Doug Black

It’s Official: Aurora on Track to Be First US Exascale Computer in 2021

March 18, 2019

The U.S. Department of Energy along with Intel and Cray confirmed today that an Intel/Cray supercomputer, "Aurora," capable of sustained performance of one exaf Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Looking for Light Reading? NSF-backed ‘Comic Books’ Tackle Quantum Computing

January 28, 2019

Still baffled by quantum computing? How about turning to comic books (graphic novels for the well-read among you) for some clarity and a little humor on QC. The Read more…

By John Russell

IBM Quantum Update: Q System One Launch, New Collaborators, and QC Center Plans

January 10, 2019

IBM made three significant quantum computing announcements at CES this week. One was introduction of IBM Q System One; it’s really the integration of IBM’s Read more…

By John Russell

Deep500: ETH Researchers Introduce New Deep Learning Benchmark for HPC

February 5, 2019

ETH researchers have developed a new deep learning benchmarking environment – Deep500 – they say is “the first distributed and reproducible benchmarking s Read more…

By John Russell

Leading Solution Providers

SC 18 Virtual Booth Video Tour

Advania @ SC18 AMD @ SC18
ASRock Rack @ SC18
DDN Storage @ SC18
HPE @ SC18
IBM @ SC18
Lenovo @ SC18 Mellanox Technologies @ SC18
NVIDIA @ SC18
One Stop Systems @ SC18
Oracle @ SC18 Panasas @ SC18
Supermicro @ SC18 SUSE @ SC18 TYAN @ SC18
Verne Global @ SC18

IBM Bets $2B Seeking 1000X AI Hardware Performance Boost

February 7, 2019

For now, AI systems are mostly machine learning-based and “narrow” – powerful as they are by today's standards, they're limited to performing a few, narro Read more…

By Doug Black

The Deep500 – Researchers Tackle an HPC Benchmark for Deep Learning

January 7, 2019

How do you know if an HPC system, particularly a larger-scale system, is well-suited for deep learning workloads? Today, that’s not an easy question to answer Read more…

By John Russell

Arm Unveils Neoverse N1 Platform with up to 128-Cores

February 20, 2019

Following on its Neoverse roadmap announcement last October, Arm today revealed its next-gen Neoverse microarchitecture with compute and throughput-optimized si Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

France to Deploy AI-Focused Supercomputer: Jean Zay

January 22, 2019

HPE announced today that it won the contract to build a supercomputer that will drive France’s AI and HPC efforts. The computer will be part of GENCI, the Fre Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Intel Launches Cascade Lake Xeons with Up to 56 Cores

April 2, 2019

At Intel's Data-Centric Innovation Day in San Francisco (April 2), the company unveiled its second-generation Xeon Scalable (Cascade Lake) family and debuted it Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Microsoft to Buy Mellanox?

December 20, 2018

Networking equipment powerhouse Mellanox could be an acquisition target by Microsoft, according to a published report in an Israeli financial publication. Microsoft has reportedly gone so far as to engage Goldman Sachs to handle negotiations with Mellanox. Read more…

By Doug Black

HPC Reflections and (Mostly Hopeful) Predictions

December 19, 2018

So much ‘spaghetti’ gets tossed on walls by the technology community (vendors and researchers) to see what sticks that it is often difficult to peer through Read more…

By John Russell

Oil and Gas Supercloud Clears Out Remaining Knights Landing Inventory: All 38,000 Wafers

March 13, 2019

The McCloud HPC service being built by Australia’s DownUnder GeoSolutions (DUG) outside Houston is set to become the largest oil and gas cloud in the world th Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

  • arrow
  • Click Here for More Headlines
  • arrow
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!
Share This