Hyperion (IDC) Paints a Bullish Picture of HPC Future

By John Russell

April 20, 2017

Hyperion Research – formerly IDC’s HPC group – yesterday painted a fascinating and complicated portrait of the HPC community’s health and prospects at the HPC User Forum held in Albuquerque, NM. HPC sales are up and growing ($22 billion, all HPC segments, 2016). Global exascale plans are solidifying (who, what, when, and how much ($)). The new kid on the block – all things ‘big’ data driven – is becoming an adolescent and behaving accordingly. And HPC ROI, at least as measured by Hyperion, is $551 per $1 invested (revenue growth) and $52 per $1 of profit invested.

This new version of HPC has been taking shape for some time and most of the themes are familiar (see HPCwire 2015 article, IDC: The Changing Face of HPC): industry consolidation, SGI’s acquisition by HPE along with the Dell EMC merger being the most recent; accelerated computing versus Moore’s Law; the growing appetite of HPC technology suppliers for expansion into the enterprise; big data’s transformation into a more nuanced multi-faceted blend of technologies and applications making it a form of HPC. These are just a few of the major trends laid out by Hyperion at its HPC User Forum.

All netted down, HPC is still expected to be a growth market, according to Earl Joseph, now CEO of Hyperion, which is expected to be acquired by year’s end. Joseph cited the following drivers:

  • Growing recognition of HPC’s strategic value.
  • HPDA, including ML/DL, cognitive and AI.
  • HPC in the cloud will lift the sector writ large.

“There’s a lot of growth in the upper half of the market and we are back to slowdown in the lower half of the market,” said Joseph. “Supercomputers are showing a very good recovery but they still haven’t hit the high point (~$5 billion) of three or four years ago.” They likely won’t get back to that level till 2022/2023 suggested Joseph.

Overall the HPC market segments have tended to hold their position. Storage ($4,316 million) remained the largest non-server segment and the fastest growing segment overall with a 7.8 percent annual growth expected over the next five years.

Vendor jockeying will continue he noted. Consolidation has been a major factor. HPE topped the revenue list in 2016 and will likely do so again in 2017 when SGI’s revenue is added. Dell EMC would no doubt question that and it will be interesting to watch this rivalry. IBM has never recovered its position after jettisoning its x86 businesses. The battle between x86 offerings, IBM Power, and ARM continues with both Europe and Japan making substantial bets on ARM for HPC uses. Indeed, the rise of heterogeneous computing generally is creating new opportunities for a variety of accelerators and accelerated systems.

These are the top HPC server suppliers by revenue ($ millions) according to Hyperion: HPE/HP ($3,878), Dell ($2,014), Lenovo ($909), IBM ($492), Cray ($461), Sugon ($315), Fujitsu ($226), SGI ($169), NEC ($166), Bull Atos ($118), and Other ($2,453). Interesting to note that “Other” is the second largest total revenue.

Not surprisingly, Hyperion looked closely at the intensifying race for exascale machines. China, for example, has three efforts on the path to exascale. Joseph expects China to be first to stand up an exascale. “They are saying 2019 but we’re not sure they will hit that date. We’re saying 2020,” said Joseph. The major players – U.S., EU, Japan, and China – are all speeding up their efforts. In the U.S., for example, Path Forward awards are expected soon.

Many questions remain. China is still selecting final vendors, something that was supposed to be done last fall said Joseph. Japan’s design is the closest to being “locked in” with the prime contractor Fujitsu having settled on an ARM-based architecture. But that project has experienced some delay and its financing method is not fixed.

“According to Japan’s latest announcement, their machine will be up in 2023 but we really expect it to be 2024. The cost may be a bit higher too, $800 million to $900-plus million range. Also, the Japanese government has not yet agreed to fund the whole system. They are funding it one year at time,” said Joseph.

Nevertheless, exascale funds are starting to flow and plans are taking firmer shape. As shown here, Hyperion has characterized the major exascale programs and forecast likely costs, technology choices, and timetables. Paul Messina, director of the U.S. Exascale Computing Project, provided an update at the HPC User Forum and HPCwire will have detailed coverage of the U.S. effort shortly.

Predictably, the Hyperion presentation covered a lot of ground drawn from Hyperion/IDC’s ongoing research efforts. Steve Conway, another IDC veteran and now Hyperion SVP research, reviewed the adoption of HPDA as well as zeroing in on two of its drivers, deep learning and machine learning. You may recall that IDC was one of the first to recognize the rise of data analytics as part of HPC. Clearly there are many potential uses cases Conway said. Today, the HPC-HPDA convergence is taken for granted and is depicted in the slide below.

Hyperion has just created four new data-intensive segments, bulleted here, with more to follow:

  • Fraud and anomaly detection. Two example use cases include government (intelligence, cyber security) and industry (credit card fraud, cyber security).
  • Affinity Marketing. Discern potential customers’ demographics, buying preferences and habits.
  • Business intelligence. Identify opportunities to advance market position and competitiveness.
  • Precision Medicine. Personalized approach to improve outcomes, control costs.

“Fraud and anomaly detection are the largest today. Business intelligence is growing quickly. The tortoise that will probably win the race is precision medicine because of the size of the health care over time,” said Conway, noting the HPDA market is growing two to three times faster than traditional overall HPC market.

Not surprisingly, deep learning is the darling of this frontier and also the most technically challenging. Singling out precision medicine as a promising area for DL, Conway said “IBM Watson is the name that’s known here but I promise you x86 clusters are doing the same thing.”

Making the machine learning to deep learning shift is a difficult journey said Conway. Having enough data both to train deep learning systems and also to infer high fidelity decisions when put into practice is the big challenge. “If you are in the realm of Google or Baidu or Facebook, you have plenty of data. If you are outside of that realm you are in trouble. In most of these realms you do not have enough data to do deep learning,” said Conway.

“One case in point, and we have many of them: We talked to the United Health Group which has about 100 million people that it covers; that’s not nearly enough to do the deep learning they need and they know it. They have built a facility in Cambridge, Mass., and invited competitors to come in and to pool anonymized data to try to get to the point where they can actually start playing with deep learning. This is a big issue.”

Aside from having enough data, there’s the computation challenge. Today, GPUs “rule the roost in these ecosystems, with the software built around them, but we expect to see other things like Intel Phis and the remarkable resurgence of FPGAs have a role. Another big issue vendors are having here is there really aren’t good benchmarks and they spend too much time just trying to decide what would be satisfactory results,” Conway said.

In earlier studies HPC user willingness to deploy in the cloud has often seemed tepid. Costs, security, adequate performance (data movement, computation, and storage) were all concerns, especially so in public cloud. Hyperion suggested attitudes seem to be changing and reported a jump in the number of HPC sites using public clouds – 64 percent now up from 13 percent in 2011. Conway cautioned that the size and number of jobs were still limited to a small proportion of any give user’s needs. Conversely, suggested Conway, private and hybrid cloud use was growing fast and held more near-term promise.

Despite the great flux within HPC many areas have changed little according to Hyperion. For example, software problems (management s/w, parallel s/w, license issues, etc.) remain the number one pain point to HPC adoption or use according to Hyperion research. This prompted a member of the audience to say, “Earl, this looks like exactly the same IDC slide I saw ten years ago.” It sort of is.

Storage access time was now the number two complaint, followed by clusters still too hard to use and manage.

Hyperion presented a fair amount of detail concerning its ROI study and is making the full data available to requesters. (Download Results: www.hpcuserforum.com/ROI)

Slides courtesy of Hyperion Research.

Subscribe to HPCwire's Weekly Update!

Be the most informed person in the room! Stay ahead of the tech trends with industy updates delivered to you every week!

What’s New in HPC Research: Galaxies, Fugaku, Electron Microscopes & More

January 25, 2021

In this regular feature, HPCwire highlights newly published research in the high-performance computing community and related domains. From parallel programming to exascale to quantum computing, the details are here. Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Red Hat’s Disruption of CentOS Unleashes Storm of Dissent

January 22, 2021

Five weeks after angering much of the CentOS Linux developer community by unveiling controversial changes to the no-cost CentOS operating system, Red Hat has unveiled alternatives for affected users that give them severa Read more…

By Todd R. Weiss

China Unveils First 7nm Chip: Big Island

January 22, 2021

Shanghai Tianshu Zhaoxin Semiconductor Co. is claiming China’s first 7-nanometer chip, described as a leading-edge, general-purpose cloud computing chip based on a proprietary GPU architecture. Dubbed “Big Island Read more…

By George Leopold

HiPEAC Keynote: In-Memory Computing Steps Closer to Practical Reality

January 21, 2021

Pursuit of in-memory computing has long been an active area with recent progress showing promise. Just how in-memory computing works, how close it is to practical application, and what are some of the key opportunities a Read more…

By John Russell

HiPEAC’s Vision for a New Cyber Era, a ‘Continuum of Computing’

January 21, 2021

Earlier this week (Jan. 19), HiPEAC — the European Network on High Performance and Embedded Architecture and Compilation — published the 8th edition of the HiPEAC Vision, detailing an increasingly interconnected computing landscape where complex tasks are carried out across multiple... Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

AWS Solution Channel

Fire Dynamics Simulation CFD workflow on AWS

Modeling fires is key for many industries, from the design of new buildings, defining evacuation procedures for trains, planes and ships, and even the spread of wildfires. Read more…

Supercomputers Assist Hunt for Mysterious Axion Particle

January 21, 2021

In the 1970s, scientists theorized the existence of axions: particles born in the hearts of stars that, when exposed to a magnetic field, become light particles, and which may even comprise dark matter. To date, however, Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Red Hat’s Disruption of CentOS Unleashes Storm of Dissent

January 22, 2021

Five weeks after angering much of the CentOS Linux developer community by unveiling controversial changes to the no-cost CentOS operating system, Red Hat has un Read more…

By Todd R. Weiss

HiPEAC Keynote: In-Memory Computing Steps Closer to Practical Reality

January 21, 2021

Pursuit of in-memory computing has long been an active area with recent progress showing promise. Just how in-memory computing works, how close it is to practic Read more…

By John Russell

HiPEAC’s Vision for a New Cyber Era, a ‘Continuum of Computing’

January 21, 2021

Earlier this week (Jan. 19), HiPEAC — the European Network on High Performance and Embedded Architecture and Compilation — published the 8th edition of the HiPEAC Vision, detailing an increasingly interconnected computing landscape where complex tasks are carried out across multiple... Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Saudi Aramco Unveils Dammam 7, Its New Top Ten Supercomputer

January 21, 2021

By revenue, oil and gas giant Saudi Aramco is one of the largest companies in the world, and it has historically employed commensurate amounts of supercomputing Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

President-elect Biden Taps Eric Lander and Deep Team on Science Policy

January 19, 2021

Last Friday U.S. President-elect Joe Biden named The Broad Institute founding director and president Eric Lander as his science advisor and as director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy. Lander, 63, is a mathematician by training and distinguished life sciences... Read more…

By John Russell

Pat Gelsinger Returns to Intel as CEO

January 14, 2021

The Intel board of directors has appointed a new CEO. Intel alum Pat Gelsinger is leaving his post as CEO of VMware to rejoin the company that he parted ways with 11 years ago. Gelsinger will succeed Bob Swan, who will remain CEO until Feb. 15. Gelsinger previously spent 30 years... Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Julia Update: Adoption Keeps Climbing; Is It a Python Challenger?

January 13, 2021

The rapid adoption of Julia, the open source, high level programing language with roots at MIT, shows no sign of slowing according to data from Julialang.org. I Read more…

By John Russell

Intel ‘Ice Lake’ Server Chips in Production, Set for Volume Ramp This Quarter

January 12, 2021

Intel Corp. used this week’s virtual CES 2021 event to reassert its dominance of the datacenter with the formal roll out of its next-generation server chip, the 10nm Xeon Scalable processor that targets AI and HPC workloads. The third-generation “Ice Lake” family... Read more…

By George Leopold

Esperanto Unveils ML Chip with Nearly 1,100 RISC-V Cores

December 8, 2020

At the RISC-V Summit today, Art Swift, CEO of Esperanto Technologies, announced a new, RISC-V based chip aimed at machine learning and containing nearly 1,100 low-power cores based on the open-source RISC-V architecture. Esperanto Technologies, headquartered in... Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Julia Update: Adoption Keeps Climbing; Is It a Python Challenger?

January 13, 2021

The rapid adoption of Julia, the open source, high level programing language with roots at MIT, shows no sign of slowing according to data from Julialang.org. I Read more…

By John Russell

Azure Scaled to Record 86,400 Cores for Molecular Dynamics

November 20, 2020

A new record for HPC scaling on the public cloud has been achieved on Microsoft Azure. Led by Dr. Jer-Ming Chia, the cloud provider partnered with the Beckman I Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

NICS Unleashes ‘Kraken’ Supercomputer

April 4, 2008

A Cray XT4 supercomputer, dubbed Kraken, is scheduled to come online in mid-summer at the National Institute for Computational Sciences (NICS). The soon-to-be petascale system, and the resulting NICS organization, are the result of an NSF Track II award of $65 million to the University of Tennessee and its partners to provide next-generation supercomputing for the nation's science community. Read more…

Is the Nvidia A100 GPU Performance Worth a Hardware Upgrade?

October 16, 2020

Over the last decade, accelerators have seen an increasing rate of adoption in high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, and in the June 2020 Top500 list, eig Read more…

By Hartwig Anzt, Ahmad Abdelfattah and Jack Dongarra

Aurora’s Troubles Move Frontier into Pole Exascale Position

October 1, 2020

Intel’s 7nm node delay has raised questions about the status of the Aurora supercomputer that was scheduled to be stood up at Argonne National Laboratory next year. Aurora was in the running to be the United States’ first exascale supercomputer although it was on a contemporaneous timeline with... Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

10nm, 7nm, 5nm…. Should the Chip Nanometer Metric Be Replaced?

June 1, 2020

The biggest cool factor in server chips is the nanometer. AMD beating Intel to a CPU built on a 7nm process node* – with 5nm and 3nm on the way – has been i Read more…

By Doug Black

Programming the Soon-to-Be World’s Fastest Supercomputer, Frontier

January 5, 2021

What’s it like designing an app for the world’s fastest supercomputer, set to come online in the United States in 2021? The University of Delaware’s Sunita Chandrasekaran is leading an elite international team in just that task. Chandrasekaran, assistant professor of computer and information sciences, recently was named... Read more…

By Tracey Bryant

Leading Solution Providers

Contributors

Top500: Fugaku Keeps Crown, Nvidia’s Selene Climbs to #5

November 16, 2020

With the publication of the 56th Top500 list today from SC20's virtual proceedings, Japan's Fugaku supercomputer – now fully deployed – notches another win, Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Texas A&M Announces Flagship ‘Grace’ Supercomputer

November 9, 2020

Texas A&M University has announced its next flagship system: Grace. The new supercomputer, named for legendary programming pioneer Grace Hopper, is replacing the Ada system (itself named for mathematician Ada Lovelace) as the primary workhorse for Texas A&M’s High Performance Research Computing (HPRC). Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

At Oak Ridge, ‘End of Life’ Sometimes Isn’t

October 31, 2020

Sometimes, the old dog actually does go live on a farm. HPC systems are often cursed with short lifespans, as they are continually supplanted by the latest and Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Gordon Bell Special Prize Goes to Massive SARS-CoV-2 Simulations

November 19, 2020

2020 has proven a harrowing year – but it has produced remarkable heroes. To that end, this year, the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) introduced the Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Nvidia and EuroHPC Team for Four Supercomputers, Including Massive ‘Leonardo’ System

October 15, 2020

The EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (JU) serves as Europe’s concerted supercomputing play, currently comprising 32 member states and billions of euros in funding. I Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Intel Xe-HP GPU Deployed for Aurora Exascale Development

November 17, 2020

At SC20, Intel announced that it is making its Xe-HP high performance discrete GPUs available to early access developers. Notably, the new chips have been deplo Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Nvidia-Arm Deal a Boon for RISC-V?

October 26, 2020

The $40 billion blockbuster acquisition deal that will bring chipmaker Arm into the Nvidia corporate family could provide a boost for the competing RISC-V architecture. As regulators in the U.S., China and the European Union begin scrutinizing the impact of the blockbuster deal on semiconductor industry competition and innovation, the deal has at the very least... Read more…

By George Leopold

HPE, AMD and EuroHPC Partner for Pre-Exascale LUMI Supercomputer

October 21, 2020

Not even a week after Nvidia announced that it would be providing hardware for the first four of the eight planned EuroHPC systems, HPE and AMD are announcing a Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

  • arrow
  • Click Here for More Headlines
  • arrow
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!
Share This