Hyperion (IDC) Paints a Bullish Picture of HPC Future

By John Russell

April 20, 2017

Hyperion Research – formerly IDC’s HPC group – yesterday painted a fascinating and complicated portrait of the HPC community’s health and prospects at the HPC User Forum held in Albuquerque, NM. HPC sales are up and growing ($22 billion, all HPC segments, 2016). Global exascale plans are solidifying (who, what, when, and how much ($)). The new kid on the block – all things ‘big’ data driven – is becoming an adolescent and behaving accordingly. And HPC ROI, at least as measured by Hyperion, is $551 per $1 invested (revenue growth) and $52 per $1 of profit invested.

This new version of HPC has been taking shape for some time and most of the themes are familiar (see HPCwire 2015 article, IDC: The Changing Face of HPC): industry consolidation, SGI’s acquisition by HPE along with the Dell EMC merger being the most recent; accelerated computing versus Moore’s Law; the growing appetite of HPC technology suppliers for expansion into the enterprise; big data’s transformation into a more nuanced multi-faceted blend of technologies and applications making it a form of HPC. These are just a few of the major trends laid out by Hyperion at its HPC User Forum.

All netted down, HPC is still expected to be a growth market, according to Earl Joseph, now CEO of Hyperion, which is expected to be acquired by year’s end. Joseph cited the following drivers:

  • Growing recognition of HPC’s strategic value.
  • HPDA, including ML/DL, cognitive and AI.
  • HPC in the cloud will lift the sector writ large.

“There’s a lot of growth in the upper half of the market and we are back to slowdown in the lower half of the market,” said Joseph. “Supercomputers are showing a very good recovery but they still haven’t hit the high point (~$5 billion) of three or four years ago.” They likely won’t get back to that level till 2022/2023 suggested Joseph.

Overall the HPC market segments have tended to hold their position. Storage ($4,316 million) remained the largest non-server segment and the fastest growing segment overall with a 7.8 percent annual growth expected over the next five years.

Vendor jockeying will continue he noted. Consolidation has been a major factor. HPE topped the revenue list in 2016 and will likely do so again in 2017 when SGI’s revenue is added. Dell EMC would no doubt question that and it will be interesting to watch this rivalry. IBM has never recovered its position after jettisoning its x86 businesses. The battle between x86 offerings, IBM Power, and ARM continues with both Europe and Japan making substantial bets on ARM for HPC uses. Indeed, the rise of heterogeneous computing generally is creating new opportunities for a variety of accelerators and accelerated systems.

These are the top HPC server suppliers by revenue ($ millions) according to Hyperion: HPE/HP ($3,878), Dell ($2,014), Lenovo ($909), IBM ($492), Cray ($461), Sugon ($315), Fujitsu ($226), SGI ($169), NEC ($166), Bull Atos ($118), and Other ($2,453). Interesting to note that “Other” is the second largest total revenue.

Not surprisingly, Hyperion looked closely at the intensifying race for exascale machines. China, for example, has three efforts on the path to exascale. Joseph expects China to be first to stand up an exascale. “They are saying 2019 but we’re not sure they will hit that date. We’re saying 2020,” said Joseph. The major players – U.S., EU, Japan, and China – are all speeding up their efforts. In the U.S., for example, Path Forward awards are expected soon.

Many questions remain. China is still selecting final vendors, something that was supposed to be done last fall said Joseph. Japan’s design is the closest to being “locked in” with the prime contractor Fujitsu having settled on an ARM-based architecture. But that project has experienced some delay and its financing method is not fixed.

“According to Japan’s latest announcement, their machine will be up in 2023 but we really expect it to be 2024. The cost may be a bit higher too, $800 million to $900-plus million range. Also, the Japanese government has not yet agreed to fund the whole system. They are funding it one year at time,” said Joseph.

Nevertheless, exascale funds are starting to flow and plans are taking firmer shape. As shown here, Hyperion has characterized the major exascale programs and forecast likely costs, technology choices, and timetables. Paul Messina, director of the U.S. Exascale Computing Project, provided an update at the HPC User Forum and HPCwire will have detailed coverage of the U.S. effort shortly.

Predictably, the Hyperion presentation covered a lot of ground drawn from Hyperion/IDC’s ongoing research efforts. Steve Conway, another IDC veteran and now Hyperion SVP research, reviewed the adoption of HPDA as well as zeroing in on two of its drivers, deep learning and machine learning. You may recall that IDC was one of the first to recognize the rise of data analytics as part of HPC. Clearly there are many potential uses cases Conway said. Today, the HPC-HPDA convergence is taken for granted and is depicted in the slide below.

Hyperion has just created four new data-intensive segments, bulleted here, with more to follow:

  • Fraud and anomaly detection. Two example use cases include government (intelligence, cyber security) and industry (credit card fraud, cyber security).
  • Affinity Marketing. Discern potential customers’ demographics, buying preferences and habits.
  • Business intelligence. Identify opportunities to advance market position and competitiveness.
  • Precision Medicine. Personalized approach to improve outcomes, control costs.

“Fraud and anomaly detection are the largest today. Business intelligence is growing quickly. The tortoise that will probably win the race is precision medicine because of the size of the health care over time,” said Conway, noting the HPDA market is growing two to three times faster than traditional overall HPC market.

Not surprisingly, deep learning is the darling of this frontier and also the most technically challenging. Singling out precision medicine as a promising area for DL, Conway said “IBM Watson is the name that’s known here but I promise you x86 clusters are doing the same thing.”

Making the machine learning to deep learning shift is a difficult journey said Conway. Having enough data both to train deep learning systems and also to infer high fidelity decisions when put into practice is the big challenge. “If you are in the realm of Google or Baidu or Facebook, you have plenty of data. If you are outside of that realm you are in trouble. In most of these realms you do not have enough data to do deep learning,” said Conway.

“One case in point, and we have many of them: We talked to the United Health Group which has about 100 million people that it covers; that’s not nearly enough to do the deep learning they need and they know it. They have built a facility in Cambridge, Mass., and invited competitors to come in and to pool anonymized data to try to get to the point where they can actually start playing with deep learning. This is a big issue.”

Aside from having enough data, there’s the computation challenge. Today, GPUs “rule the roost in these ecosystems, with the software built around them, but we expect to see other things like Intel Phis and the remarkable resurgence of FPGAs have a role. Another big issue vendors are having here is there really aren’t good benchmarks and they spend too much time just trying to decide what would be satisfactory results,” Conway said.

In earlier studies HPC user willingness to deploy in the cloud has often seemed tepid. Costs, security, adequate performance (data movement, computation, and storage) were all concerns, especially so in public cloud. Hyperion suggested attitudes seem to be changing and reported a jump in the number of HPC sites using public clouds – 64 percent now up from 13 percent in 2011. Conway cautioned that the size and number of jobs were still limited to a small proportion of any give user’s needs. Conversely, suggested Conway, private and hybrid cloud use was growing fast and held more near-term promise.

Despite the great flux within HPC many areas have changed little according to Hyperion. For example, software problems (management s/w, parallel s/w, license issues, etc.) remain the number one pain point to HPC adoption or use according to Hyperion research. This prompted a member of the audience to say, “Earl, this looks like exactly the same IDC slide I saw ten years ago.” It sort of is.

Storage access time was now the number two complaint, followed by clusters still too hard to use and manage.

Hyperion presented a fair amount of detail concerning its ROI study and is making the full data available to requesters. (Download Results: www.hpcuserforum.com/ROI)

Slides courtesy of Hyperion Research.

Subscribe to HPCwire's Weekly Update!

Be the most informed person in the room! Stay ahead of the tech trends with industy updates delivered to you every week!

University of Stuttgart Inaugurates ‘Hawk’ Supercomputer

February 20, 2020

This week, the new “Hawk” supercomputer was inaugurated in a ceremony at the High-Performance Computing Center of the University of Stuttgart (HLRS). Officials, scientists and other stakeholders celebrated the new sy Read more…

By Staff report

US to Triple Its Supercomputing Capacity for Weather and Climate with Two New Crays

February 20, 2020

The blizzard of news around the race for weather and climate supercomputing leadership continues. Just three days after the UK announced a £1.2 billion plan to build the world’s largest weather and climate supercomputer, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration... Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Indiana University Researchers Use Supercomputing to Model the State’s Largest Watershed

February 20, 2020

With water stressors on the rise, understanding and protecting water supplies is more important than ever. Now, a team of researchers from Indiana University has created a new climate change data portal to help Indianans Read more…

By Staff report

TACC – Supporting Portable, Reproducible, Computational Science with Containers

February 20, 2020

Researchers who use supercomputers for science typically don't limit themselves to one system. They move their projects to whatever resources are available, often using many different systems simultaneously, in their lab Read more…

By Aaron Dubrow

China Researchers Set Distance Record in Quantum Memory Entanglement

February 20, 2020

Efforts to develop the necessary capabilities for building a practical ‘quantum-based’ internet have been ongoing for years. One of the biggest challenges is being able to maintain and manage entanglement of remote q Read more…

By John Russell

AWS Solution Channel

Challenging the barriers to High Performance Computing in the Cloud

Cloud computing helps democratize High Performance Computing by placing powerful computational capabilities in the hands of more researchers, engineers, and organizations who may lack access to sufficient on-premises infrastructure. Read more…

IBM Accelerated Insights

Intelligent HPC – Keeping Hard Work at Bay(es)

Since the dawn of time, humans have looked for ways to make their lives easier. Over the centuries human ingenuity has given us inventions such as the wheel and simple machines – which help greatly with tasks that would otherwise be extremely laborious. Read more…

New Algorithm Allows PCs to Challenge HPC in Weather Forecasting

February 19, 2020

Accurate weather forecasting has, by and large, been situated squarely in the domain of high-performance computing – just this week, the UK announced a nearly $1.6 billion investment in the world’s largest supercompu Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

US to Triple Its Supercomputing Capacity for Weather and Climate with Two New Crays

February 20, 2020

The blizzard of news around the race for weather and climate supercomputing leadership continues. Just three days after the UK announced a £1.2 billion plan to build the world’s largest weather and climate supercomputer, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration... Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Japan’s AIST Benchmarks Intel Optane; Cites Benefit for HPC and AI

February 19, 2020

Last April Intel released its Optane Data Center Persistent Memory Module (DCPMM) – byte addressable nonvolatile memory – to increase main memory capacity a Read more…

By John Russell

UK Announces £1.2 Billion Weather and Climate Supercomputer

February 19, 2020

While the planet is heating up, so is the race for global leadership in weather and climate computing. In a bombshell announcement, the UK government revealed p Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

The Massive GPU Cloudburst Experiment Plays a Smaller, More Productive Encore

February 13, 2020

In November, researchers at the San Diego Supercomputer Center (SDSC) and the IceCube Particle Astrophysics Center (WIPAC) set out to break the internet – or Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Eni to Retake Industry HPC Crown with Launch of HPC5

February 12, 2020

With the launch of its Dell-built HPC5 system, Italian energy company Eni regains its position atop the industrial supercomputing leaderboard. At 52-petaflops p Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Trump Budget Proposal Again Slashes Science Spending

February 11, 2020

President Donald Trump’s FY2021 U.S. Budget, submitted to Congress this week, again slashes science spending. It’s a $4.8 trillion statement of priorities, Read more…

By John Russell

Policy: Republicans Eye Bigger Science Budgets; NSF Celebrates 70th, Names Idea Machine Winners

February 5, 2020

It’s a busy week for science policy. Yesterday, the National Science Foundation announced winners of its 2026 Idea Machine contest seeking directions for futu Read more…

By John Russell

Fujitsu A64FX Supercomputer to Be Deployed at Nagoya University This Summer

February 3, 2020

Japanese tech giant Fujitsu announced today that it will supply Nagoya University Information Technology Center with the first commercial supercomputer powered Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Julia Programming’s Dramatic Rise in HPC and Elsewhere

January 14, 2020

Back in 2012 a paper by four computer scientists including Alan Edelman of MIT introduced Julia, A Fast Dynamic Language for Technical Computing. At the time, t Read more…

By John Russell

Cray, Fujitsu Both Bringing Fujitsu A64FX-based Supercomputers to Market in 2020

November 12, 2019

The number of top-tier HPC systems makers has shrunk due to a steady march of M&A activity, but there is increased diversity and choice of processing compon Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

SC19: IBM Changes Its HPC-AI Game Plan

November 25, 2019

It’s probably fair to say IBM is known for big bets. Summit supercomputer – a big win. Red Hat acquisition – looking like a big win. OpenPOWER and Power processors – jury’s out? At SC19, long-time IBMer Dave Turek sketched out a different kind of bet for Big Blue – a small ball strategy, if you’ll forgive the baseball analogy... Read more…

By John Russell

Intel Debuts New GPU – Ponte Vecchio – and Outlines Aspirations for oneAPI

November 17, 2019

Intel today revealed a few more details about its forthcoming Xe line of GPUs – the top SKU is named Ponte Vecchio and will be used in Aurora, the first plann Read more…

By John Russell

IBM Unveils Latest Achievements in AI Hardware

December 13, 2019

“The increased capabilities of contemporary AI models provide unprecedented recognition accuracy, but often at the expense of larger computational and energet Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

SC19: Welcome to Denver

November 17, 2019

A significant swath of the HPC community has come to Denver for SC19, which began today (Sunday) with a rich technical program. As is customary, the ribbon cutt Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Fujitsu A64FX Supercomputer to Be Deployed at Nagoya University This Summer

February 3, 2020

Japanese tech giant Fujitsu announced today that it will supply Nagoya University Information Technology Center with the first commercial supercomputer powered Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

51,000 Cloud GPUs Converge to Power Neutrino Discovery at the South Pole

November 22, 2019

At the dead center of the South Pole, thousands of sensors spanning a cubic kilometer are buried thousands of meters beneath the ice. The sensors are part of Ic Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Leading Solution Providers

SC 2019 Virtual Booth Video Tour

AMD
AMD
ASROCK RACK
ASROCK RACK
AWS
AWS
CEJN
CJEN
CRAY
CRAY
DDN
DDN
DELL EMC
DELL EMC
IBM
IBM
MELLANOX
MELLANOX
ONE STOP SYSTEMS
ONE STOP SYSTEMS
PANASAS
PANASAS
SIX NINES IT
SIX NINES IT
VERNE GLOBAL
VERNE GLOBAL
WEKAIO
WEKAIO

Jensen Huang’s SC19 – Fast Cars, a Strong Arm, and Aiming for the Cloud(s)

November 20, 2019

We’ve come to expect Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s annual SC keynote to contain stunning graphics and lively bravado (with plenty of examples) in support of GPU Read more…

By John Russell

Top500: US Maintains Performance Lead; Arm Tops Green500

November 18, 2019

The 54th Top500, revealed today at SC19, is a familiar list: the U.S. Summit (ORNL) and Sierra (LLNL) machines, offering 148.6 and 94.6 petaflops respectively, Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Azure Cloud First with AMD Epyc Rome Processors

November 6, 2019

At Ignite 2019 this week, Microsoft's Azure cloud team and AMD announced an expansion of their partnership that began in 2017 when Azure debuted Epyc-backed instances for storage workloads. The fourth-generation Azure D-series and E-series virtual machines previewed at the Rome launch in August are now generally available. Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Intel’s New Hyderabad Design Center Targets Exascale Era Technologies

December 3, 2019

Intel's Raja Koduri was in India this week to help launch a new 300,000 square foot design and engineering center in Hyderabad, which will focus on advanced com Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

In Memoriam: Steve Tuecke, Globus Co-founder

November 4, 2019

HPCwire is deeply saddened to report that Steve Tuecke, longtime scientist at Argonne National Lab and University of Chicago, has passed away at age 52. Tuecke Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

IBM Debuts IC922 Power Server for AI Inferencing and Data Management

January 28, 2020

IBM today launched a Power9-based inference server – the IC922 – that features up to six Nvidia T4 GPUs, PCIe Gen 4 and OpenCAPI connectivity, and can accom Read more…

By John Russell

Cray Debuts ClusterStor E1000 Finishing Remake of Portfolio for ‘Exascale Era’

October 30, 2019

Cray, now owned by HPE, today introduced the ClusterStor E1000 storage platform, which leverages Cray software and mixes hard disk drives (HDD) and flash memory Read more…

By John Russell

D-Wave’s Path to 5000 Qubits; Google’s Quantum Supremacy Claim

September 24, 2019

On the heels of IBM’s quantum news last week come two more quantum items. D-Wave Systems today announced the name of its forthcoming 5000-qubit system, Advantage (yes the name choice isn’t serendipity), at its user conference being held this week in Newport, RI. Read more…

By John Russell

  • arrow
  • Click Here for More Headlines
  • arrow
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!
Share This