Hyperion: AI-driven HPC Industry Continues to Push Growth Projections

By Doug Black

November 21, 2019

Three major forces – AI, cloud and exascale – are combining to raise the HPC industry to heights exceeding expectations. According to market study results released this week by Hyperion Research at SC19 in Denver, HPC server sales in the first half of the year totaled $6.7 billion, while 2018 sales grew 15 percent overall, totaling $13.7 billion. Growth has been driven primarily by new buyers from the enterprise moving into HPC for AI-related workloads, such as fraud detection, business intelligence, affinity marketing, personalized medicine, smart cities and IoT, the firm said.

Hyperion expects the good times to keep rolling for HPC server vendors, with that industry sector projected to reach just under $20 billion by 2023 for a 2018-2023 CAGR of 7.8 percent. For the broader HPC market, encompassing servers, storage, middleware, applications and services, revenue is expected to reach slightly less than $40 billion for a CAGR of 7.2 percent.

Other key takeaways from Hyperion’s industry update:

  • HPE maintained its significant lead in HPC server sales, not including revenues from Cray, acquired by HPE in May, with $4.8 billion in revenue for a 34.8 percent share, ahead of Dell EMC’s share of 20.8 percent, followed by IBM, Lenovo and Inspur.
  • View by vertical markets, government laboratory applications was the largest sector in 2018 with $2.6 billion in server sales, followed by university/academic at $2.4 billion, defense at $1.4 billion and computer-aided engineering at $1.5 billion.
  • High Performance Data Analytics (HPDA)-AI is growing faster than the overall HPC market, and the AI subset is growing faster than HPDA, though in absolute dollars it will remain smaller. Hyperion reported that worldwide HPC-based AI (machine/deep learning and other) is expected to reach $2.7 billion by 2023 for a 2018-2023 CAGR of 29.5 percent while worldwide HPDA revenues are expected to reach $6.45 billion by 2023, a five-year CAGR of 15.4 percent.

Yet for all that, Hyperion Senior Research VP Steve Conway said AI is just starting.

“There’s pretty good consensus that we are at a period that we’re still near the beginning with AI as far as capability goes,” he said. “Lots of emphasis has been on training and there’s been lots of progress there. Just more recently, the emphasis is starting to shift to inferencing, the ability of the machines to guess better and to make better intelligence, intuition. But that’s still not so far along.”

  • Hyperion declared 2019 a tipping point year for a significant and long-anticipated shift in market attitudes toward running HPC workloads in clouds, resulting in Hyperion increasing its revenue forecast from $3 billion to $4 billion for this year and totaling $7.5 billion by 2023. By applications, HPC in the cloud will be led by bio-sciences, with a 2018-2023 CAGR of 25.6 percent, followed by CAE at 24.7 percent and chemical engineering at 23.9 percent.

Based on recent surveys of HPC cloud users reporting that they run 33 percent of their HPC workloads in 3rd-party clouds, Hyperion said the HPC community runs 20 percent of workloads in cloud environments.

“That is a very big jump from 18 to 24 months ago, that number started at just under 10 percent,” Conway said. Having said that, however, he cautioned that HPC in clouds has limitations, including moving mission critical workloads off-prem and high costs associated with data locality where large volumes of data are involved.

  • Two of the first three American exascale (a billion billion calculations per second) systems are expected to be delivered by late next year, with acceptance in 2022. These are Aurora, comprised of the Cray Shasta architecture with Intel Xeons and Intel Xe GPUs (see our coverage of Intel’s SC19 disclosures), for Argonne National Laboratory; and Frontier, comprised of Cray Shasta and AMD Epyc CPUs and future Radeon GPUs for Oak Ridge National Lab. The third system, El Capitan, based on the Cray Shasta architecture, is expected to be delivered to Lawrence Livermore National Lab within two years, with acceptance in 2023. Overall, major government-sponsored efforts will drive development of about 26 near-exascale and exascale systems by 2025, with total spending of about $9 billion, Hyperion said. After that, exascale activity may decline sharply.

“It is unclear to what extent future (beyond 2025) large supercomputers will continue to be purchased in the $500 million-plus price range,” the firm said, “or will return to more ‘modest’ price levels in the $100 to $250 million price range per system.”

As for the international exascale race, Hyperion sees the U.S. and China installing the first exascale systems in similar timeframes – by 2022 – followed by the EU and then Japan.

Hyperion also announced winners of its annual Innovation Excellence Awards, including:

  • Argonne National Laboratory used high spatial resolution physical-based models for regional climate, surface hydrology and coastal flooding to estimate flooding risks, used by AT&T to develop a risk and resiliency tool.
  • The Max Delbruck Center for Molecular Medicine worked with the Zuse Institute, Berlin, to combine convolutional neural networks and 3D statistical shape knowledge on a DDN A3I system to automate segmentation of knee bone and cartilage for identification of osteoarthritis.
  • For innovative AI hardware, Hyperion recognized Andrew Feldman of Cerebras and its Wafer Scale Engine containing more than 1.2 trillion transistors and 400,000 compute cores “to solve AI problems, that used to be solved in months, in minutes.”
  • For innovative HPC system design, Hyperion recognized Sugon for its development of a silicon cube blade system using an efficient, phase-change liquid cooling technology for a system with high computing density and energy efficiency.
Subscribe to HPCwire's Weekly Update!

Be the most informed person in the room! Stay ahead of the tech trends with industy updates delivered to you every week!

Focused on ‘Silicon TAM,’ Intel Puts Gary Patton, Former GlobalFoundries CTO, in Charge of Design Enablement

December 12, 2019

Change within Intel’s upper management – and to its company mission – has continued as a published report has disclosed that chip technology heavyweight Gary Patton, GlobalFoundries’ CTO and R&D SVP as well a Read more…

By Doug Black

Quantum Bits: Rigetti Debuts New Gates, D-Wave Cuts NEC Deal, AWS Jumps into the Quantum Pool

December 12, 2019

There’s been flurry of significant news in the quantum computing world. Yesterday, Rigetti introduced a new family of gates that reduces circuit depth required on some problems and D-Wave struck a deal with NEC to coll Read more…

By John Russell

How Formula 1 Used Cloud HPC to Build the Next Generation of Racing

December 12, 2019

Formula 1, Rob Smedley explained, is maybe the biggest racing spectacle in the world, with five hundred million fans tuning in for every race. Smedley, a chief engineer with Formula 1’s performance engineering and anal Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

RPI Powers Up ‘AiMOS’ AI Supercomputer

December 11, 2019

Designed to push the frontiers of computing chip and systems performance optimized for AI workloads, an 8 petaflops (Linpack) IBM Power9-based supercomputer has been unveiled in upstate New York that will be used by IBM Read more…

By Doug Black

At SC19: Developing a Digital Twin

December 11, 2019

In the not too distant future, we can expect to see our skies filled with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) delivering packages, maybe even people, from location to location. In such a world, there will also be a digital twin for each UAV in the fleet: a virtual model that will follow the UAV through its existence, evolving with time. Read more…

By Aaron Dubrow

AWS Solution Channel

Making High Performance Computing Affordable and Accessible for Small and Medium Businesses with HPC on AWS

High performance computing (HPC) brings a powerful set of tools to a broad range of industries, helping to drive innovation and boost revenue in finance, genomics, oil and gas extraction, and other fields. Read more…

IBM Accelerated Insights

GPU Scheduling and Resource Accounting: The Key to an Efficient AI Data Center

[Connect with LSF users and learn new skills in the IBM Spectrum LSF User Community!]

GPUs are the new CPUs

GPUs have become a staple technology in modern HPC and AI data centers. Read more…

Supercomputers Help Predict Carbon Dioxide Levels

December 10, 2019

The Earth’s terrestrial ecosystems – its lands, forests, jungles and so on – are crucial “sinks” for atmospheric carbon, holding nearly 30 percent of our annual CO2 emissions as they breathe in the carbon-rich Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Focused on ‘Silicon TAM,’ Intel Puts Gary Patton, Former GlobalFoundries CTO, in Charge of Design Enablement

December 12, 2019

Change within Intel’s upper management – and to its company mission – has continued as a published report has disclosed that chip technology heavyweight G Read more…

By Doug Black

RPI Powers Up ‘AiMOS’ AI Supercomputer

December 11, 2019

Designed to push the frontiers of computing chip and systems performance optimized for AI workloads, an 8 petaflops (Linpack) IBM Power9-based supercomputer has Read more…

By Doug Black

At SC19: Developing a Digital Twin

December 11, 2019

In the not too distant future, we can expect to see our skies filled with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) delivering packages, maybe even people, from location to location. In such a world, there will also be a digital twin for each UAV in the fleet: a virtual model that will follow the UAV through its existence, evolving with time. Read more…

By Aaron Dubrow

Intel’s Jim Clarke on its New Cryo-controller and why Intel isn’t Late to the Quantum Party

December 9, 2019

Intel today introduced the ‘first-of-its-kind’ cryo-controller chip for quantum computing and previewed a cryo-prober tool for characterizing quantum proces Read more…

By John Russell

On the Spack Track @SC19

December 5, 2019

At the annual supercomputing conference, SC19 in Denver, Colorado, there were Spack events each day of the conference. As a reflection of its grassroots heritage, nine sessions were planned by more than a dozen thought leaders from seven organizations, including three U.S. national Department of Energy (DOE) laboratories and Sylabs... Read more…

By Elizabeth Leake

Intel’s New Hyderabad Design Center Targets Exascale Era Technologies

December 3, 2019

Intel's Raja Koduri was in India this week to help launch a new 300,000 square foot design and engineering center in Hyderabad, which will focus on advanced com Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

AWS Debuts 7nm 2nd-Gen Graviton Arm Processor

December 3, 2019

The “x86 Big Bang,” in which market dominance of the venerable Intel CPU has exploded into fragments of processor options suited to varying workloads, has n Read more…

By Doug Black

Ride on the Wild Side – Squyres SC19 Mars Rovers Keynote

December 2, 2019

Reminding us of the deep and enabling connection between HPC and modern science is an important part of the SC Conference mission. And yes, HPC is a science its Read more…

By John Russell

Using AI to Solve One of the Most Prevailing Problems in CFD

October 17, 2019

How can artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) solve mesh generation, one of the most commonly referenced problems in computational engineering? A new study has set out to answer this question and create an industry-first AI-mesh application... Read more…

By James Sharpe

D-Wave’s Path to 5000 Qubits; Google’s Quantum Supremacy Claim

September 24, 2019

On the heels of IBM’s quantum news last week come two more quantum items. D-Wave Systems today announced the name of its forthcoming 5000-qubit system, Advantage (yes the name choice isn’t serendipity), at its user conference being held this week in Newport, RI. Read more…

By John Russell

DARPA Looks to Propel Parallelism

September 4, 2019

As Moore’s law runs out of steam, new programming approaches are being pursued with the goal of greater hardware performance with less coding. The Defense Advanced Projects Research Agency is launching a new programming effort aimed at leveraging the benefits of massive distributed parallelism with less sweat. Read more…

By George Leopold

Ayar Labs to Demo Photonics Chiplet in FPGA Package at Hot Chips

August 19, 2019

Silicon startup Ayar Labs continues to gain momentum with its DARPA-backed optical chiplet technology that puts advanced electronics and optics on the same chip Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

SC19: IBM Changes Its HPC-AI Game Plan

November 25, 2019

It’s probably fair to say IBM is known for big bets. Summit supercomputer – a big win. Red Hat acquisition – looking like a big win. OpenPOWER and Power processors – jury’s out? At SC19, long-time IBMer Dave Turek sketched out a different kind of bet for Big Blue – a small ball strategy, if you’ll forgive the baseball analogy... Read more…

By John Russell

Cray, Fujitsu Both Bringing Fujitsu A64FX-based Supercomputers to Market in 2020

November 12, 2019

The number of top-tier HPC systems makers has shrunk due to a steady march of M&A activity, but there is increased diversity and choice of processing compon Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Crystal Ball Gazing: IBM’s Vision for the Future of Computing

October 14, 2019

Dario Gil, IBM’s relatively new director of research, painted a intriguing portrait of the future of computing along with a rough idea of how IBM thinks we’ Read more…

By John Russell

Intel Debuts New GPU – Ponte Vecchio – and Outlines Aspirations for oneAPI

November 17, 2019

Intel today revealed a few more details about its forthcoming Xe line of GPUs – the top SKU is named Ponte Vecchio and will be used in Aurora, the first plann Read more…

By John Russell

Leading Solution Providers

SC 2019 Virtual Booth Video Tour

AMD
AMD
CEJN
CJEN
ONE STOP SYSTEMS
ONE STOP SYSTEMS
PANASAS
PANASAS
SIX NINES IT
SIX NINES IT
VERNE GLOBAL
VERNE GLOBAL
WEKAIO
WEKAIO

Kubernetes, Containers and HPC

September 19, 2019

Software containers and Kubernetes are important tools for building, deploying, running and managing modern enterprise applications at scale and delivering enterprise software faster and more reliably to the end user — while using resources more efficiently and reducing costs. Read more…

By Daniel Gruber, Burak Yenier and Wolfgang Gentzsch, UberCloud

Dell Ramps Up HPC Testing of AMD Rome Processors

October 21, 2019

Dell Technologies is wading deeper into the AMD-based systems market with a growing evaluation program for the latest Epyc (Rome) microprocessors from AMD. In a Read more…

By John Russell

Cray Wins NNSA-Livermore ‘El Capitan’ Exascale Contract

August 13, 2019

Cray has won the bid to build the first exascale supercomputer for the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) and Lawrence Livermore National Laborator Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

SC19: Welcome to Denver

November 17, 2019

A significant swath of the HPC community has come to Denver for SC19, which began today (Sunday) with a rich technical program. As is customary, the ribbon cutt Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

When Dense Matrix Representations Beat Sparse

September 9, 2019

In our world filled with unintended consequences, it turns out that saving memory space to help deal with GPU limitations, knowing it introduces performance pen Read more…

By James Reinders

Cerebras to Supply DOE with Wafer-Scale AI Supercomputing Technology

September 17, 2019

Cerebras Systems, which debuted its wafer-scale AI silicon at Hot Chips last month, has entered into a multi-year partnership with Argonne National Laboratory and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory as part of a larger collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy... Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

With the Help of HPC, Astronomers Prepare to Deflect a Real Asteroid

September 26, 2019

For years, NASA has been running simulations of asteroid impacts to understand the risks (and likelihoods) of asteroids colliding with Earth. Now, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) are preparing for the next, crucial step in planetary defense against asteroid impacts: physically deflecting a real asteroid. Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Jensen Huang’s SC19 – Fast Cars, a Strong Arm, and Aiming for the Cloud(s)

November 20, 2019

We’ve come to expect Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s annual SC keynote to contain stunning graphics and lively bravado (with plenty of examples) in support of GPU Read more…

By John Russell

  • arrow
  • Click Here for More Headlines
  • arrow
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!
Share This