Pandemic ‘Wipes Out’ 2020 HPC Market Growth, Flat to 12% Drop Expected

By Tiffany Trader

March 31, 2020

As the world battles the still accelerating novel coronavirus, the HPC community has mounted a forceful response to the pandemic on many fronts. But these efforts won’t inoculate the HPC industry from the economic effects of COVID-19. Market watcher Intersect360 Research has revised its 2020 forecast for HPC products and services, projecting a flat period in the best case to a decline of 12 percent year-over-year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is in stark contrast with the firm’s original, pre-pandemic forecast of 7 percent YoY growth for 2020.

Addison Snell, Intersect360 Research CEO, said the report gives a range of guidance based on uncertain factors; the possible 12 percent decline is the midpoint of a spread from 6 to 17 percent below prior market expectations.

Revised 2020 Forecast, Total HPC Market Revenue ($000) – Intersect360 Research, 2020

Surveys conducted in February and March of this year by the firm indicate that 2019 numbers remain on track for a healthy 7 percent increase over 2018, from $36.1 billion in 2018 to $38.7 billion. The original 2020 forecast had the market up by another 7 percent year-over-year to $41.4 billion. This projection has been scaled down to between $34.1 billion and $38.7 billion total market size with a midpoint of $36.4 billion. Parallel to the bull-turned-bear stock market, this dip would end a streak of 10 straight growth years for the HPC market, according to the analyst firm.

“We are still early in the process of learning about the COVID-19 pandemic and what it will truly mean for the world,” said Snell. “That said, we cannot think everything will stay the same. Our data and experience show there will be an adjustment in the HPC market as a direct result of the spread of the novel coronavirus.”

Not all market segments will be equally impacted, according to Intersect360, with certain segments, such as public sector research and biosciences, resisting the downturn.

“The high performance computing market’s growth has been driven in large part by commercial vertical markets over the last decade, and that’s where we’re going to see the brunt of [the negative impact],” relayed Snell on the This Week in HPC podcast (produced by Intersect360 Research and distributed by HPCwire). “Interestingly enough, public sector research should be somewhat buoyed by a lot of the investments that we’re seeing at a national level, even academic research. We won’t see as much of a deviation from forecasts in the public sector, in biosciences. Similarly, investment in pharmaceuticals is somewhat shielded. But when we go to other commercial vertical markets, we’re going to see a larger effect; some of the worst hit are going to be automotive and aerospace engineering.”

The updated report notes that as budgets tighten in response to economic pressures, system and storage spending, whether on new acquisitions or upgrades, gets put on hold. This presents an opening for cloud spending, which the firm expects will rise above its “already-high” double-digit growth projections.

“[System acquisition] is the largest portion of expense that I can defer in order to protect operations,” said Snell. “Cloud computing is something that tends to do well in times of uncertainty or volatility, because you can use it on both ends. If you have a sudden increase in demand, for example, in the public sector and biosciences, cloud can absorb that kind of demand. At the other extreme, if you’ve deferred an expenditure for a new system or an upgrade, but need some capacity for ongoing work, cloud can pick some of that up. So our growth rate for cloud is going up substantially in our forecast for 2020.”

He added that as a small portion of the HPC market, cloud sector growth won’t offset losses in on-prem hardware spending. But hardware spending could bounce back the following year, Snell said, buffering aggregate losses as procurements are delayed rather than canceled. Visibility is limited, however, by so many unknowns  around the pandemic’s course and impacts.

“People will move to protect staffing and operations first,” said Snell. “If we get a minor effect, I think a lot of that [spend] will come back in a future year. But if we really see a deleterious effect throughout the worldwide economy, then some of the revenue is just going to wind up being lost. So we’ve given this range of guidance right now.”

Intersect360 acknowledged the wide range in its updated forecast with so much still uncertain about the unfolding of the pandemic. Snell said his team expects to narrow that range to a more specific number at the end of this year and will publish a revised five-year forecast in Q2. “We typically complete those numbers toward the end of April every year, but we didn’t want to wait another month to get out this pre-announced guidance for COVID-19 because it was pretty clear that we’re going to miss the original forecast as a result of the pandemic. That just goes beyond our forecast capabilities to look at things like war and famine, and in this case disease, that just wasn’t part of the forecast methodology, but it’s a reality now.”

Intersect360 Research is one of several analyst houses offering updated guidance on the impact of the pandemic that has instigated the biggest economic disruption since the 2008 financial crisis. Last week, HPCwire reported on projected market contractions. Hyperion Research stated it expects delayed product shipments, especially from China, and a decrease in 2020 Q1 and Q2 revenue, with growth possibly returning in the back half of the year. While there is substantial demand for computing to process COVID-19 workloads, it comes primarily from existing HPC systems rather than orders for new ones, noted Hyperion.

Subscribe to HPCwire's Weekly Update!

Be the most informed person in the room! Stay ahead of the tech trends with industy updates delivered to you every week!

Hats Over Hearts: Remembering Rich Brueckner

May 26, 2020

It is with great sadness that we announce the death of Rich Brueckner. His passing is an unexpected and enormous blow to both his family and our HPC family. Rich was born in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on April 12, 1962. His Read more…

Supercomputer Simulations Reveal the Fate of the Neanderthals

May 25, 2020

For hundreds of thousands of years, neanderthals roamed the planet, eventually (almost 50,000 years ago) giving way to homo sapiens, which quickly became the dominant primate species, with the neanderthals disappearing b Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Discovering Alternative Solar Panel Materials with Supercomputing

May 23, 2020

Solar power is quickly growing in the world’s energy mix, but silicon – a crucial material in the construction of photovoltaic solar panels – remains expensive, hindering solar’s expansion and competitiveness wit Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Nvidia Q1 Earnings Top Expectations, Datacenter Revenue Breaks $1B

May 22, 2020

Nvidia’s seemingly endless roll continued in the first quarter with the company announcing blockbuster earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations. Nvidia said revenues for the period ended April 26 were up 39 perc Read more…

By Doug Black

TACC Supercomputers Delve into COVID-19’s Spike Protein

May 22, 2020

If you’ve been following COVID-19 research, by now, you’ve probably heard of the spike protein (or S-protein). The spike protein – which gives COVID-19 its namesake crown-like shape – is the virus’ crowbar into Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

AWS Solution Channel

Computational Fluid Dynamics on AWS

Over the past 30 years Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has grown to become a key part of many engineering design processes. From aircraft design to modelling the blood flow in our bodies, the ability to understand the behaviour of fluids has enabled countless innovations and improved the time to market for many products. Read more…

Using HPC, Researchers Discover How Easily Hurricanes Form

May 21, 2020

Hurricane formation has long remained shrouded in mystery, with meteorologists unable to discern exactly what forces cause the devastating storms (also known as tropical cyclones) to materialize. Now, researchers at Flor Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Microsoft’s Massive AI Supercomputer on Azure: 285k CPU Cores, 10k GPUs

May 20, 2020

Microsoft has unveiled a supercomputing monster – among the world’s five most powerful, according to the company – aimed at what is known in scientific an Read more…

By Doug Black

HPC in Life Sciences 2020 Part 1: Rise of AMD, Data Management’s Wild West, More 

May 20, 2020

Given the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the massive enlistment of major HPC resources to fight the pandemic, it is especially appropriate to re Read more…

By John Russell

AMD Epyc Rome Picked for New Nvidia DGX, but HGX Preserves Intel Option

May 19, 2020

AMD continues to make inroads into the datacenter with its second-generation Epyc "Rome" processor, which last week scored a win with Nvidia's announcement that Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Hacking Streak Forces European Supercomputers Offline in Midst of COVID-19 Research Effort

May 18, 2020

This week, a number of European supercomputers discovered intrusive malware hosted on their systems. Now, in the midst of a massive supercomputing research effo Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Nvidia’s Ampere A100 GPU: Up to 2.5X the HPC, 20X the AI

May 14, 2020

Nvidia's first Ampere-based graphics card, the A100 GPU, packs a whopping 54 billion transistors on 826mm2 of silicon, making it the world's largest seven-nanom Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Wafer-Scale Engine AI Supercomputer Is Fighting COVID-19

May 13, 2020

Seemingly every supercomputer in the world is allied in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic – but not many of them are fresh out of the box. Cerebras S Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Startup MemVerge on Memory-centric Mission

May 12, 2020

Memory situated at the center of the computing universe, replacing processing, has long been envisioned as instrumental to radically improved datacenter systems Read more…

By Doug Black

In Australia, HPC Illuminates the Early Universe

May 11, 2020

Many billions of years ago, the universe was a swirling pool of gas. Unraveling the story of how we got from there to here isn’t an easy task, with many simul Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Supercomputer Modeling Tests How COVID-19 Spreads in Grocery Stores

April 8, 2020

In the COVID-19 era, many people are treating simple activities like getting gas or groceries with caution as they try to heed social distancing mandates and protect their own health. Still, significant uncertainty surrounds the relative risk of different activities, and conflicting information is prevalent. A team of Finnish researchers set out to address some of these uncertainties by... Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

[email protected] Turns Its Massive Crowdsourced Computer Network Against COVID-19

March 16, 2020

For gamers, fighting against a global crisis is usually pure fantasy – but now, it’s looking more like a reality. As supercomputers around the world spin up Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

[email protected] Rallies a Legion of Computers Against the Coronavirus

March 24, 2020

Last week, we highlighted [email protected], a massive, crowdsourced computer network that has turned its resources against the coronavirus pandemic sweeping the globe – but [email protected] isn’t the only game in town. The internet is buzzing with crowdsourced computing... Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Global Supercomputing Is Mobilizing Against COVID-19

March 12, 2020

Tech has been taking some heavy losses from the coronavirus pandemic. Global supply chains have been disrupted, virtually every major tech conference taking place over the next few months has been canceled... Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

DoE Expands on Role of COVID-19 Supercomputing Consortium

March 25, 2020

After announcing the launch of the COVID-19 High Performance Computing Consortium on Sunday, the Department of Energy yesterday provided more details on its sco Read more…

By John Russell

Steve Scott Lays Out HPE-Cray Blended Product Roadmap

March 11, 2020

Last week, the day before the El Capitan processor disclosures were made at HPE's new headquarters in San Jose, Steve Scott (CTO for HPC & AI at HPE, and former Cray CTO) was on-hand at the Rice Oil & Gas HPC conference in Houston. He was there to discuss the HPE-Cray transition and blended roadmap, as well as his favorite topic, Cray's eighth-gen networking technology, Slingshot. Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Honeywell’s Big Bet on Trapped Ion Quantum Computing

April 7, 2020

Honeywell doesn’t spring to mind when thinking of quantum computing pioneers, but a decade ago the high-tech conglomerate better known for its control systems waded deliberately into the then calmer quantum computing (QC) waters. Fast forward to March when Honeywell announced plans to introduce an ion trap-based quantum computer whose ‘performance’ would... Read more…

By John Russell

Fujitsu A64FX Supercomputer to Be Deployed at Nagoya University This Summer

February 3, 2020

Japanese tech giant Fujitsu announced today that it will supply Nagoya University Information Technology Center with the first commercial supercomputer powered Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Leading Solution Providers

SC 2019 Virtual Booth Video Tour

AMD
AMD
ASROCK RACK
ASROCK RACK
AWS
AWS
CEJN
CJEN
CRAY
CRAY
DDN
DDN
DELL EMC
DELL EMC
IBM
IBM
MELLANOX
MELLANOX
ONE STOP SYSTEMS
ONE STOP SYSTEMS
PANASAS
PANASAS
SIX NINES IT
SIX NINES IT
VERNE GLOBAL
VERNE GLOBAL
WEKAIO
WEKAIO

Contributors

Tech Conferences Are Being Canceled Due to Coronavirus

March 3, 2020

Several conferences scheduled to take place in the coming weeks, including Nvidia’s GPU Technology Conference (GTC) and the Strata Data + AI conference, have Read more…

By Alex Woodie

Exascale Watch: El Capitan Will Use AMD CPUs & GPUs to Reach 2 Exaflops

March 4, 2020

HPE and its collaborators reported today that El Capitan, the forthcoming exascale supercomputer to be sited at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and serve Read more…

By John Russell

‘Billion Molecules Against COVID-19’ Challenge to Launch with Massive Supercomputing Support

April 22, 2020

Around the world, supercomputing centers have spun up and opened their doors for COVID-19 research in what may be the most unified supercomputing effort in hist Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Cray to Provide NOAA with Two AMD-Powered Supercomputers

February 24, 2020

The United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) last week announced plans for a major refresh of its operational weather forecasting supercomputers, part of a 10-year, $505.2 million program, which will secure two HPE-Cray systems for NOAA’s National Weather Service to be fielded later this year and put into production in early 2022. Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Summit Supercomputer is Already Making its Mark on Science

September 20, 2018

Summit, now the fastest supercomputer in the world, is quickly making its mark in science – five of the six finalists just announced for the prestigious 2018 Read more…

By John Russell

15 Slides on Programming Aurora and Exascale Systems

May 7, 2020

Sometime in 2021, Aurora, the first planned U.S. exascale system, is scheduled to be fired up at Argonne National Laboratory. Cray (now HPE) and Intel are the k Read more…

By John Russell

TACC Supercomputers Run Simulations Illuminating COVID-19, DNA Replication

March 19, 2020

As supercomputers around the world spin up to combat the coronavirus, the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) is announcing results that may help to illumina Read more…

By Staff report

Nvidia’s Ampere A100 GPU: Up to 2.5X the HPC, 20X the AI

May 14, 2020

Nvidia's first Ampere-based graphics card, the A100 GPU, packs a whopping 54 billion transistors on 826mm2 of silicon, making it the world's largest seven-nanom Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

  • arrow
  • Click Here for More Headlines
  • arrow
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!
Share This