NOAA Announces Major Upgrade to Ensemble Forecast Model, Extends Range to 35 Days

By Oliver Peckham

September 23, 2020

A bit over a year ago, the United States’ Global Forecast System (GFS) received a major upgrade: a new dynamical core – its first in 40 years – called the finite-volume cubed-sphere, or FV3. Now, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is bringing the FV3 dynamical core to another major member of its weather modeling suite: the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). The new upgrade dramatically extends the range and accuracy of the widely used model.

While the GFS is a single run several times per day and operates at a relatively high resolution, the GEFS is an ensemble model: that is, it consists of a wide range of relatively lower-resolution simulations that are collected to provide a distribution of likely weather scenarios over a given time. The GEFS is used to produce medium-range weather forecasts, and to provide outlooks of impending high-impact weather events such as hurricanes, blizzards and extreme heat and cold.

“If our upgrade to the Global Forecast System last year (GFS) was like upgrading the engine in a car, this upgrade to GEFS is like replacing the engines in a fleet of cars,” said Ivanka Stajner, acting director of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center. “Each car takes advantage of the power of this new engine, and with slightly different features, they represent the forecast uncertainties more accurately, aiding the forecasters and decision makers with information on a range of possibilities to be considered when issuing the forecasts.”

U.S. weather modeling came into question in 2012 when NOAA forecasting failed to accurately predict the disastrous landfall of Hurricane Sandy; since then, NOAA and the NWS have received a wide range of investments and upgrades. From 2012 2018, the NWS’ supercomputing power increased from 776 teraflops to 8.4 petaflops, and seven months ago, the U.S. announced plans to triple NOAA’s supercomputing capacity for weather and climate with two new Cray Shasta systems, each with a peak capability of 12 petaflops.

With the FV3 in place, the GEFS will benefit in a variety of ways: the resolution will improve from a 33km grid to a 25km grid; the number of forecasts in the ensemble will increase from 21 to 31; and the physics are generally improved, particularly allowing for better forecasting of rain and snow. Perhaps the most noticeable improvement, however, will be in the GEFS’ forecasting range: the upgrade increases the range of the GEFS from 16 to 35 days and will, for the first time, allow the National Weather Service (NWS) to deliver numerical weather predictions three to four weeks in advance. The more-than-doubled forecast range will also allow the GEFS to be used for monthly – and even seasonal – forecasts.

“This GEFS upgrade continues the ongoing revolution of numerical modeling that began with the introduction of ensemble modeling into operations over 25 years ago,” added Louis W. Uccellini, director of the NWS. “This new version will provide additional forecast skill and extended lead-times for the prediction of extreme weather and water events; and to address important forecast challenges in weeks three and four with a higher-resolution ensemble system.” 

Accuracy drops off as the forecast projects further and further into the future, of course – for some areas more than others. “We are seeing useful [predictive] skill in temperatures,” Uccellini said. “[But] we’ve got a lot of work to do on precipitation during this week three and four period.”

The FV3 upgrade is now implemented in the operational GEFS model, meaning that its outputs are available for use beginning immediately. “This system will now be providing forecast guidance that can be used by the forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center,” Stajner said, “and the guidance is also available publicly … from all of the 31 [ensemble] members … out to 35 days.”

Beyond the immediate improvements, NOAA also has its eyes set on the long game. “These advancements won’t just provide better resolution and accuracy to our numerical models,” Uccellini said. “[They] will also set the stage for future upgrades and are a big step towards advancing NOAA’s operational global forecast capabilities using what we now call the Unified Forecast System framework.”

“The future really is in ensemble modeling and bringing that to higher resolution,” he continued. “There are folks who are pointing towards resolution in the single-digit kilometer range, for us to get into more of the details and extend the predictability further out in time.”

To learn more about these recent supercomputing experiments in ultra-high-resolution weather forecasting, read some other HPCwire articles here and here.

Subscribe to HPCwire's Weekly Update!

Be the most informed person in the room! Stay ahead of the tech trends with industy updates delivered to you every week!

NASA Uses Supercomputing to Measure Carbon in the World’s Trees

October 22, 2020

Trees constitute one of the world’s most important carbon sinks, pulling enormous amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing the carbon in their trunks and the surrounding soil. Measuring this carbon sto Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Nvidia Dominates (Again) Latest MLPerf Inference Results

October 22, 2020

The two-year-old AI benchmarking group MLPerf.org released its second set of inferencing results yesterday and again, as in the most recent MLPerf training results (July 2020), it was almost entirely The Nvidia Show, a p Read more…

By John Russell

With Optane Gaining, Intel Exits NAND Flash

October 21, 2020

In a sign that its 3D XPoint memory technology is gaining traction, Intel Corp. is departing the NAND flash memory and storage market with the sale of its manufacturing base in China to SK Hynix of South Korea. The $9 Read more…

By George Leopold

HPE, AMD and EuroHPC Partner for Pre-Exascale LUMI Supercomputer

October 21, 2020

Not even a week after Nvidia announced that it would be providing hardware for the first four of the eight planned EuroHPC systems, HPE and AMD are announcing another major EuroHPC design win. Finnish supercomputing cent Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

HPE to Build Australia’s Most Powerful Supercomputer for Pawsey

October 20, 2020

The Pawsey Supercomputing Centre in Perth, Western Australia, has had a busy year. Pawsey typically spends much of its time looking to the stars, working with a variety of observatories and astronomers – but when COVID Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

AWS Solution Channel

Live Webinar: AWS & Intel Research Webinar Series – Fast scaling research workloads on the cloud

Date: 27 Oct – 5 Nov

Join us for the AWS and Intel Research Webinar series.

You will learn how we help researchers process complex workloads, quickly analyze massive data pipelines, store petabytes of data, and advance research using transformative technologies. Read more…

Intel® HPC + AI Pavilion

Berlin Institute of Health: Putting HPC to Work for the World

Researchers from the Center for Digital Health at the Berlin Institute of Health (BIH) are using science to understand the pathophysiology of COVID-19, which can help to inform the development of targeted treatments. Read more…

DDN-Tintri Showcases Technology Integration with Two New Products

October 20, 2020

DDN, a long-time leader in HPC storage, announced two new products today and provided more detail around its strategy for integrating DDN HPC technologies with the enterprise strengths of its recent acquisitions, notably Read more…

By John Russell

Nvidia Dominates (Again) Latest MLPerf Inference Results

October 22, 2020

The two-year-old AI benchmarking group MLPerf.org released its second set of inferencing results yesterday and again, as in the most recent MLPerf training resu Read more…

By John Russell

HPE, AMD and EuroHPC Partner for Pre-Exascale LUMI Supercomputer

October 21, 2020

Not even a week after Nvidia announced that it would be providing hardware for the first four of the eight planned EuroHPC systems, HPE and AMD are announcing a Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

HPE to Build Australia’s Most Powerful Supercomputer for Pawsey

October 20, 2020

The Pawsey Supercomputing Centre in Perth, Western Australia, has had a busy year. Pawsey typically spends much of its time looking to the stars, working with a Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

DDN-Tintri Showcases Technology Integration with Two New Products

October 20, 2020

DDN, a long-time leader in HPC storage, announced two new products today and provided more detail around its strategy for integrating DDN HPC technologies with Read more…

By John Russell

Is the Nvidia A100 GPU Performance Worth a Hardware Upgrade?

October 16, 2020

Over the last decade, accelerators have seen an increasing rate of adoption in high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, and in the June 2020 Top500 list, eig Read more…

By Hartwig Anzt, Ahmad Abdelfattah and Jack Dongarra

Nvidia and EuroHPC Team for Four Supercomputers, Including Massive ‘Leonardo’ System

October 15, 2020

The EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (JU) serves as Europe’s concerted supercomputing play, currently comprising 32 member states and billions of euros in funding. I Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

ROI: Is HPC Worth It? What Can We Actually Measure?

October 15, 2020

HPC enables innovation and discovery. We all seem to agree on that. Is there a good way to quantify how much that’s worth? Thanks to a sponsored white pape Read more…

By Addison Snell, Intersect360 Research

Preparing for Exascale Science on Day 1

October 14, 2020

Science simulation, visualization, data, and learning applications will greatly benefit from the massive computational resources available with future exascal Read more…

By Linda Barney

Supercomputer-Powered Research Uncovers Signs of ‘Bradykinin Storm’ That May Explain COVID-19 Symptoms

July 28, 2020

Doctors and medical researchers have struggled to pinpoint – let alone explain – the deluge of symptoms induced by COVID-19 infections in patients, and what Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Nvidia Said to Be Close on Arm Deal

August 3, 2020

GPU leader Nvidia Corp. is in talks to buy U.K. chip designer Arm from parent company Softbank, according to several reports over the weekend. If consummated Read more…

By George Leopold

Intel’s 7nm Slip Raises Questions About Ponte Vecchio GPU, Aurora Supercomputer

July 30, 2020

During its second-quarter earnings call, Intel announced a one-year delay of its 7nm process technology, which it says it will create an approximate six-month shift for its CPU product timing relative to prior expectations. The primary issue is a defect mode in the 7nm process that resulted in yield degradation... Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Google Hires Longtime Intel Exec Bill Magro to Lead HPC Strategy

September 18, 2020

In a sign of the times, another prominent HPCer has made a move to a hyperscaler. Longtime Intel executive Bill Magro joined Google as chief technologist for hi Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

HPE Keeps Cray Brand Promise, Reveals HPE Cray Supercomputing Line

August 4, 2020

The HPC community, ever-affectionate toward Cray and its eponymous founder, can breathe a (virtual) sigh of relief. The Cray brand will live on, encompassing th Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

10nm, 7nm, 5nm…. Should the Chip Nanometer Metric Be Replaced?

June 1, 2020

The biggest cool factor in server chips is the nanometer. AMD beating Intel to a CPU built on a 7nm process node* – with 5nm and 3nm on the way – has been i Read more…

By Doug Black

Aurora’s Troubles Move Frontier into Pole Exascale Position

October 1, 2020

Intel’s 7nm node delay has raised questions about the status of the Aurora supercomputer that was scheduled to be stood up at Argonne National Laboratory next year. Aurora was in the running to be the United States’ first exascale supercomputer although it was on a contemporaneous timeline with... Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

European Commission Declares €8 Billion Investment in Supercomputing

September 18, 2020

Just under two years ago, the European Commission formalized the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (JU): a concerted HPC effort (comprising 32 participating states at c Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Leading Solution Providers

Contributors

Is the Nvidia A100 GPU Performance Worth a Hardware Upgrade?

October 16, 2020

Over the last decade, accelerators have seen an increasing rate of adoption in high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, and in the June 2020 Top500 list, eig Read more…

By Hartwig Anzt, Ahmad Abdelfattah and Jack Dongarra

Nvidia and EuroHPC Team for Four Supercomputers, Including Massive ‘Leonardo’ System

October 15, 2020

The EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (JU) serves as Europe’s concerted supercomputing play, currently comprising 32 member states and billions of euros in funding. I Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

Google Cloud Debuts 16-GPU Ampere A100 Instances

July 7, 2020

On the heels of the Nvidia’s Ampere A100 GPU launch in May, Google Cloud is announcing alpha availability of the A100 “Accelerator Optimized” VM A2 instance family on Google Compute Engine. The instances are powered by the HGX A100 16-GPU platform, which combines two HGX A100 8-GPU baseboards using... Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Microsoft Azure Adds A100 GPU Instances for ‘Supercomputer-Class AI’ in the Cloud

August 19, 2020

Microsoft Azure continues to infuse its cloud platform with HPC- and AI-directed technologies. Today the cloud services purveyor announced a new virtual machine Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure Powers Fugaku’s Storage, Scores IO500 Win

August 28, 2020

In June, RIKEN shook the supercomputing world with its Arm-based, Fujitsu-built juggernaut: Fugaku. The system, which weighs in at 415.5 Linpack petaflops, topp Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

DOD Orders Two AI-Focused Supercomputers from Liqid

August 24, 2020

The U.S. Department of Defense is making a big investment in data analytics and AI computing with the procurement of two HPC systems that will provide the High Read more…

By Tiffany Trader

Oracle Cloud Deepens HPC Embrace with Launch of A100 Instances, Plans for Arm, More 

September 22, 2020

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) continued its steady ramp-up of HPC capabilities today with a flurry of announcements. Topping the list is general availabilit Read more…

By John Russell

Joliot-Curie Supercomputer Used to Build First Full, High-Fidelity Aircraft Engine Simulation

July 14, 2020

When industrial designers plan the design of a new element of a vehicle’s propulsion or exterior, they typically use fluid dynamics to optimize airflow and in Read more…

By Oliver Peckham

  • arrow
  • Click Here for More Headlines
  • arrow
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!
Share This