Hyperion: HPC Market is Stabilizing and Headed to $50B by 2026

By John Russell

May 30, 2022

While echoes of the pandemic continue rippling through the HPC landscape – primarily lingering supply chain issues – the outlook for the HPC market writ large is strong, according to Hyperion Research, which delivered its ISC 2022 HPC market update today. Last year, HPC spending (on premise, cloud, and AI) neared $35 billion and is on track to reach nearly $40 billion in 2022 and $50 billion by 2026 according to Hyperion.

“The overall market in 2021 did very well. We saw an additional growth again, which is a surprise given the supply chain issues [and] Covid issues. In this chart (below), we’re showing our view of the whole HPC spending on premise, and we add in the cloud portion – it’s what HPC end users spend in the cloud, it’s not what cloud providers are purchasing. [The] total was roughly $35 billion last year,” said Earl Joseph, Hyperion CEO.

Vendors, said Joseph, have worked hard to address supply chain issues and had devised a variety of solutions. The problem will persist but lessen over the next two years. “Given all that, we expect to see continued growth in 2022,” said Joseph.

Unlike the uncertainty surrounding most recent forecasts, the latest Hyperion outlook felt like a cautious step towards normalcy. It highlighted mostly familiar dynamics – the spike in supercomputer sales, rise of HPC-in-the-cloud, AI computing everywhere, the HPC talent scarcity, and ongoing rivalry with China. There were also a few newer trends. Hyperion forecast declining exascale revenue in out-years of that program (all booms wind down), intensifying pressure to seek sustainability (energy), presented a deeper look at interconnect adoption trends, and snapshot of the quantum computing market which hit $490 million in 2021.

The Hyperion update covered too much material for a single article and Hyperion has made the slide deck and recorded segment presentations available from its website.

To a considerable extent, the list of leading vendors remained the same. “HPE continues to be the market leader, especially with its acquisitions of Cray and SGI. Dell is a very strong second in the market. And then we see a number of vendors here that are growing very quickly. Atos is doing very well, Penguin is growing, and the Chinese providers are doing very well also,” said Joseph.

There was, of course, a fair amount Euro-centric data and focus point presented. Hyperion analyst Mark Nossokoff handled most of the Euro-overview.

“EU is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.9 percent between 2021 and 2026, ahead of the overall market CAGR of 6.9 percent. The [EuroHPC] Joint undertaking continues making progress with the execution of its strategy for HPC leadership in the EU. Last summer, the JU was extended through 2027 with a commitment of funding up to 7 billion euros, inclusive of matching funds from industry and other public private sources,” said Nossokoff.

“The JU is focused on their strategic pillars of technologies, infrastructure, applications, and broader usage and skill sets. [Continued execution of the strategy should help it towards achieving its HPC leadership aspirations. Recent JU investments have supported a total funding of approximately 360 million euro, of which approximately 163 million were provided directly by the JU – this was for five petascale and three pre exascale systems. Additionally, the JU is tasked with developing a new quantum computing ecosystem alongside the HPC ecosystem,” he said.

Nossokoff also highlighted HPC efforts in the UK, singling out, for example, the Cambridge-1 supercomputer, owned and operated by Nvidia. “The final item I’ll mention is that the selection of two locations within Europe to increase worldwide semiconductor capacity. While the chips expected to be produced at these sites will extend beyond HPC use cases, Intel’s selection of Ireland and Germany for future chip manufacturing [shows] strong support of and confidence in the continent to provide the necessary talent and business climate to eventually ease the current global supply chain challenges,” he said.

Hyperion included an overview of the ongoing, global exascale race. This section of the update was presented by Bob Sorensen, SVP of research and chief quantum analyst. Most of the material was already broadly familiar to the HPC community. Earlier in the day, of course, Frontier’s 1.102 Linpack exaflops performance placed it atop the Top500 and officially began the exascale era.

Sorensen reviewed China’s exascale efforts which have been difficult to pin down as tension with the U.S. have escalated. “In 2018, the Chinese announced that they were going to have three different of different prototypes from three different vendors using basically a different architectural emphasis. But all of them really tried to concentrate on using indigenous Chinese technology to build those particular systems,’ he said.

“So officially we had the Sunway Pro OceanLight system was targeted for about 1.3 exaflops, 35 megawatts power consumption, [and] comprised of over 38 million cores. We also had the Tianhe3, and Sugon (slide below). That’s the official status of what’s going on. But there’s some unofficial realities that we’re trying to track and make a little more sense of as we as we go forward,” he said.

“Despite a lack of public official announcements, there’s good information that the Sunway Pro OceanLight system has been up and running since March 2021 doing good work; there have been a couple of technical papers coming out but no submissions to the top 500 list. We have information that says that Tianhe-3 has also been up and running for the last six months,” said Sorensen.

It’s hardly news that use of cloud-based HPC is growing but there are changes in use patterns, reported Hyperion.

Joseph noted, “Last year, we picked up something for the first time in our surveys, and that was that HPC and AI buyers around the world, were planning to shift some money from on-premises spending into the cloud. This is really a fundamental change. Prior to that, we saw a few sites here and there, but we didn’t see this as a trend. Now, this isn’t saying that on-prem computing is going away. That [on premise purchases] continues to grow at a very healthy pace. But it’s showing that cloud computing is growing very quickly.”

Hyperion analyst Alex Norton provided the bulk of the cloud market update. “We project that the HPC cloud market, which as we track as end-user spending for running HPC workloads in the public cloud will exceed $11 billion by 2026. This represents a more than 17.5 percent CAGR over the five years from 2021 to 2026. Within that forecast, roughly one third of the cloud revenue is spent on storage specific components, while the other two thirds are spent on compute instances, software licenses, services and other aspects of running HPC workloads in the cloud,” he said.

Echoing Joseph’s earlier comments, Norton said, “A recent study that we conducted showed that almost 50 percent of the users that we talked to, are altering their future deployment plans based on the cloud being incorporated in their planning and their technology roadmaps. So, what we’ve seen is that cloud is being considered side by side with on premises resources rather than as a complementary add on solution.”

Sorensen provided Hyperion’s view of the quantum market. In December, Hyperion surveyed roughly 112 quantum computing suppliers and sized total 2021 quantum revenue at $490 million. Hyperion estimates the growth rate between 2021 and 2024 to be about almost 22 percent per year.

“This drives us to a global quantum computing market in 2020, for approaching about $900 million,” said Sorensen. “[One of the] interesting things that came out of this particular survey was about 49 percent of the companies had less than 500,000 worth of US dollars in revenue in 2021. About half had no revenue. So, we’re still looking at a sector where a significant portion of players are living more from investment input than they are from revenue generation.”

“We did find a number of companies, about 7 percent of those we spoke to, that had more than $10 million of quantum-computing-related revenues going forward. So, there are some players out there who are starting to see some significant revenue streams, but nothing that comes near what we see in the classical counterpart,” he added.

There are still so many unknowns in quantum computing. Sorensen presented a chart of quantum hardware suppliers, noting “I’ve just put down the idea of looking at hardware developers that I can identify. And at this particular point in time, I found about 44 organizations around the world, commercial players that were interested in development that leads to fielding a quantum computing hardware product (slide below).

“You can see here the wide distribution – United States, UK, China, Canada, a whole host of countries out there right now with identified commercial activities in just hardware. And what I find most interesting and the other takeaway here is that there is no agreed upon quantum computing modality yet. There are very many different options out there and we really haven’t settled on who wins yet,” he said.

“We also did an end user study recently to kind of get a sense of that. We knew what was going on the push-side of quantum computing, rather than what [was going on] with the pull-side. So, we ended up talking to about 415 companies worldwide, who are either quantum computing end users in some respects [now], or considering doing that at some point in the future. And of 415 companies, we found that about 70 percent of them already have some kind of in house quantum computing program, and 20 percent plan to do so in the next few years. If you do the simple math [it] says about 90 percent of the companies that we spoke to right now are interested in having some quantum computing activity within their organization,” said Sorensen.

Bottom line: Expectations are clearly rising among suppliers and potential end users in the nascent quantum computing and broader quantum information sciences markets.

There was a great deal more to Hyperion’s update. It’s best to seek the slides and access to the recorded presentation from Hyperion.

Slides courtesy of Hyperion Research

Subscribe to HPCwire's Weekly Update!

Be the most informed person in the room! Stay ahead of the tech trends with industy updates delivered to you every week!

Is Time Running Out for Compromise on America COMPETES/USICA Act?

June 22, 2022

You may recall that efforts proposed in 2020 to remake the National Science Foundation (Endless Frontier Act) have since expanded and morphed into two gigantic bills, the America COMPETES Act in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act in the U.S. Senate. So far, efforts to reconcile the two pieces of legislation have snagged and recent reports... Read more…

Cerebras Systems Thinks Forward on AI Chips as it Claims Performance Win

June 22, 2022

Cerebras Systems makes the largest chip in the world, but is already thinking about its upcoming AI chips as learning models continue to grow at breakneck speed. The company’s latest Wafer Scale Engine chip is indeed the size of a wafer, and is made using TSMC’s 7nm process. The next chip will pack in more cores to handle the fast-growing compute needs of AI, said Andrew Feldman, CEO of Cerebras Systems. Read more…

AMD’s MI300 APUs to Power Exascale El Capitan Supercomputer

June 21, 2022

Additional details of the architecture of the exascale El Capitan supercomputer were disclosed today by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL) Terri Quinn in a presentation delivered to the 79th HPC User Forum Read more…

IDC Perspective on Integration of Quantum Computing and HPC

June 20, 2022

The insatiable need to compress time to insights from massive and complex datasets is fueling the demand for quantum computing integration into high performance computing (HPC) environments. Such an integration would allow enterprises to accelerate and optimize current HPC applications and processes by simulating and emulating them on today’s noisy... Read more…

Q&A with Intel’s Jeff McVeigh, an HPCwire Person to Watch in 2022

June 17, 2022

HPCwire presents our interview with Jeff McVeigh, vice president and general manager, Super Compute Group, Intel Corporation, and an HPCwire 2022 Person to Watch. McVeigh shares Intel's plans for the year ahead, his pers Read more…

AWS Solution Channel

Shutterstock 152995403

Bayesian ML Models at Scale with AWS Batch

This post was contributed by Ampersand’s Jeffrey Enos, Senior Machine Learning Engineer, Daniel Gerlanc, Senior Director for Data Science, and Brandon Willard, Data Science Lead. Read more…

Microsoft/NVIDIA Solution Channel

Shutterstock 261863138

Using Cloud-Based, GPU-Accelerated AI for Financial Risk Management

There are strict rules governing financial institutions with a number of global regulatory groups publishing financial compliance requirements. Financial institutions face many challenges and legal responsibilities for risk management, compliance violations, and failure to catch financial fraud. Read more…

Nvidia, Intel to Power Atos-Built MareNostrum 5 Supercomputer

June 16, 2022

The long-troubled, hotly anticipated MareNostrum 5 supercomputer finally has a vendor: Atos, which will be supplying a system that includes both Nvidia and Intel CPUs and GPUs across multiple partitions. The newly reimag Read more…

Is Time Running Out for Compromise on America COMPETES/USICA Act?

June 22, 2022

You may recall that efforts proposed in 2020 to remake the National Science Foundation (Endless Frontier Act) have since expanded and morphed into two gigantic bills, the America COMPETES Act in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act in the U.S. Senate. So far, efforts to reconcile the two pieces of legislation have snagged and recent reports... Read more…

Cerebras Systems Thinks Forward on AI Chips as it Claims Performance Win

June 22, 2022

Cerebras Systems makes the largest chip in the world, but is already thinking about its upcoming AI chips as learning models continue to grow at breakneck speed. The company’s latest Wafer Scale Engine chip is indeed the size of a wafer, and is made using TSMC’s 7nm process. The next chip will pack in more cores to handle the fast-growing compute needs of AI, said Andrew Feldman, CEO of Cerebras Systems. Read more…

AMD’s MI300 APUs to Power Exascale El Capitan Supercomputer

June 21, 2022

Additional details of the architecture of the exascale El Capitan supercomputer were disclosed today by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL) Terri Read more…

IDC Perspective on Integration of Quantum Computing and HPC

June 20, 2022

The insatiable need to compress time to insights from massive and complex datasets is fueling the demand for quantum computing integration into high performance computing (HPC) environments. Such an integration would allow enterprises to accelerate and optimize current HPC applications and processes by simulating and emulating them on today’s noisy... Read more…

Q&A with Intel’s Jeff McVeigh, an HPCwire Person to Watch in 2022

June 17, 2022

HPCwire presents our interview with Jeff McVeigh, vice president and general manager, Super Compute Group, Intel Corporation, and an HPCwire 2022 Person to Watc Read more…

Nvidia, Intel to Power Atos-Built MareNostrum 5 Supercomputer

June 16, 2022

The long-troubled, hotly anticipated MareNostrum 5 supercomputer finally has a vendor: Atos, which will be supplying a system that includes both Nvidia and Inte Read more…

D-Wave Debuts Advantage2 Prototype; Seeks User Exploration and Feedback

June 16, 2022

Starting today, D-Wave Systems is providing access to a 500-plus-qubit prototype of its forthcoming 7000-qubit Advantage2 quantum annealing computer, which is d Read more…

AMD Opens Up Chip Design to the Outside for Custom Future

June 15, 2022

AMD is getting personal with chips as it sets sail to make products more to the liking of its customers. The chipmaker detailed a modular chip future in which customers can mix and match non-AMD processors in a custom chip package. "We are focused on making it easier to implement chips with more flexibility," said Mark Papermaster, chief technology officer at AMD during the analyst day meeting late last week. Read more…

Nvidia R&D Chief on How AI is Improving Chip Design

April 18, 2022

Getting a glimpse into Nvidia’s R&D has become a regular feature of the spring GTC conference with Bill Dally, chief scientist and senior vice president of research, providing an overview of Nvidia’s R&D organization and a few details on current priorities. This year, Dally focused mostly on AI tools that Nvidia is both developing and using in-house to improve... Read more…

Royalty-free stock illustration ID: 1919750255

Intel Says UCIe to Outpace PCIe in Speed Race

May 11, 2022

Intel has shared more details on a new interconnect that is the foundation of the company’s long-term plan for x86, Arm and RISC-V architectures to co-exist in a single chip package. The semiconductor company is taking a modular approach to chip design with the option for customers to cram computing blocks such as CPUs, GPUs and AI accelerators inside a single chip package. Read more…

The Final Frontier: US Has Its First Exascale Supercomputer

May 30, 2022

In April 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to procure a trio of exascale supercomputers at a total cost of up to $1.8 billion dollars. Over the ensuing four years, many announcements were made, many deadlines were missed, and a pandemic threw the world into disarray. Now, at long last, HPE and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) have announced that the first of those... Read more…

AMD/Xilinx Takes Aim at Nvidia with Improved VCK5000 Inferencing Card

March 8, 2022

AMD/Xilinx has released an improved version of its VCK5000 AI inferencing card along with a series of competitive benchmarks aimed directly at Nvidia’s GPU line. AMD says the new VCK5000 has 3x better performance than earlier versions and delivers 2x TCO over Nvidia T4. AMD also showed favorable benchmarks against several Nvidia GPUs, claiming its VCK5000 achieved... Read more…

Top500: Exascale Is Officially Here with Debut of Frontier

May 30, 2022

The 59th installment of the Top500 list, issued today from ISC 2022 in Hamburg, Germany, officially marks a new era in supercomputing with the debut of the first-ever exascale system on the list. Frontier, deployed at the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory, achieved 1.102 exaflops in its fastest High Performance Linpack run, which was completed... Read more…

Newly-Observed Higgs Mode Holds Promise in Quantum Computing

June 8, 2022

The first-ever appearance of a previously undetectable quantum excitation known as the axial Higgs mode – exciting in its own right – also holds promise for developing and manipulating higher temperature quantum materials... Read more…

Nvidia Launches Hopper H100 GPU, New DGXs and Grace Superchips

March 22, 2022

The battle for datacenter dominance keeps getting hotter. Today, Nvidia kicked off its spring GTC event with new silicon, new software and a new supercomputer. Speaking from a virtual environment in the Nvidia Omniverse 3D collaboration and simulation platform, CEO Jensen Huang introduced the new Hopper GPU architecture and the H100 GPU... Read more…

PsiQuantum’s Path to 1 Million Qubits

April 21, 2022

PsiQuantum, founded in 2016 by four researchers with roots at Bristol University, Stanford University, and York University, is one of a few quantum computing startups that’s kept a moderately low PR profile. (That’s if you disregard the roughly $700 million in funding it has attracted.) The main reason is PsiQuantum has eschewed the clamorous public chase for... Read more…

Leading Solution Providers

Contributors

ISC 2022 Booth Video Tours

AMD
AWS
DDN
Dell
Intel
Lenovo
Microsoft
PENGUIN SOLUTIONS

Intel Reiterates Plans to Merge CPU, GPU High-performance Chip Roadmaps

May 31, 2022

Intel reiterated it is well on its way to merging its roadmap of high-performance CPUs and GPUs as it shifts over to newer manufacturing processes and packaging technologies in the coming years. The company is merging the CPU and GPU lineups into a chip (codenamed Falcon Shores) which Intel has dubbed an XPU. Falcon Shores... Read more…

AMD Opens Up Chip Design to the Outside for Custom Future

June 15, 2022

AMD is getting personal with chips as it sets sail to make products more to the liking of its customers. The chipmaker detailed a modular chip future in which customers can mix and match non-AMD processors in a custom chip package. "We are focused on making it easier to implement chips with more flexibility," said Mark Papermaster, chief technology officer at AMD during the analyst day meeting late last week. Read more…

India Launches Petascale ‘PARAM Ganga’ Supercomputer

March 8, 2022

Just a couple of weeks ago, the Indian government promised that it had five HPC systems in the final stages of installation and would launch nine new supercomputers this year. Now, it appears to be making good on that promise: the country’s National Supercomputing Mission (NSM) has announced the deployment of “PARAM Ganga” petascale supercomputer at Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)... Read more…

Nvidia Dominates MLPerf Inference, Qualcomm also Shines, Where’s Everybody Else?

April 6, 2022

MLCommons today released its latest MLPerf inferencing results, with another strong showing by Nvidia accelerators inside a diverse array of systems. Roughly fo Read more…

AMD’s MI300 APUs to Power Exascale El Capitan Supercomputer

June 21, 2022

Additional details of the architecture of the exascale El Capitan supercomputer were disclosed today by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL) Terri Read more…

Nvidia, Intel to Power Atos-Built MareNostrum 5 Supercomputer

June 16, 2022

The long-troubled, hotly anticipated MareNostrum 5 supercomputer finally has a vendor: Atos, which will be supplying a system that includes both Nvidia and Inte Read more…

Industry Consortium Forms to Drive UCIe Chiplet Interconnect Standard

March 2, 2022

A new industry consortium aims to establish a die-to-die interconnect standard – Universal Chiplet Interconnect Express (UCIe) – in support of an open chipl Read more…

Covid Policies at HPC Conferences Should Reflect HPC Research

June 6, 2022

Supercomputing has been indispensable throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, from modeling the virus and its spread to designing vaccines and therapeutics. But, desp Read more…

  • arrow
  • Click Here for More Headlines
  • arrow
HPCwire