The Quantum Kaleidoscope – 2022 Highlights and What to Watch in 2023

By John Russell

January 9, 2023

Making sense of today’s quantum computing landscape is challenging.

IBM Research chief Dario Gil says quantum computing writ large is now undeniably an industry1. Jim Clarke, Intel quantum hardware chief, says hold your horses – we’re still 10-15 years from a fault-tolerant machine. Markus Pflitsch, founder and CEO of Swiss start-up Terra Quantum/QMware, says why wait, his company is delivering quantum advantage now by running hybrid quantum applications on HPC-based simulators. Fujitsu sort of agrees and says its Digital Annealer is likewise delivering results today in financial services.

Even photonics qubit pioneer PsiQuantum, which has long maintained any quantum payoff is years away, hired a chief business officer (Roland Acra) in December. Meanwhile, many in the HPC community remain wary of sudden efforts to integrate quantum computing into traditional supercomputing; this was evident in a SC22 panel (HPCwire coverage, Are We There (or Close) Yet? No, Says the Panel).

What is going on in the quantum computing world?

The answer, it seems, is everything: advancing hardware, more choices among qubit technology, the continued build-out of cloud-based quantum options, intense and diverse efforts around error mitigation/correction, more efficient middleware and workflow (think circuit cutting and dynamic circuits), ecosystem proliferation, transition of early POC projects into real-world apps – though these remain few – and recently the emergence of quantum-inspired techniques adapted to run on classical HPC systems to deliver value today (e.g. Terra Quantum and Fujitsu). Of course, there’s also continued debate.

That’s a lot of activity and it was represented in HPCwire’s 2022 coverage; we published roughly 80 staff-written articles on quantum computing and received roughly 500 quantum-computing related press releases, which were posted in our Off The Wire section. We also launched a new section and monthly newsletter, QCwire, to keep pace with the technology and industry moving forward.

Presented here is a very brief 2022 retrospective and 2023 prospective, noting some key trends, along with links to a few articles. We’ll skip quantum networking, memory development, and sensing – all of which have vibrant ongoing work – but haven’t been part of HPCwire’s core focus and, truthfully, there isn’t space in this short year-end recap.

Let’s start with hardware.

Qubit Counts and Types are Climbing.

IBM debuted a 443-qubit QPU late last year and plans a 1100-qubit device late this year. Rigetti announced an 84-qubit QPU and 336-qubit multi-chip device coming this year. QuEra made its 256-qubit Aquila (neutral atom array) available through AWS Braket. D-Wave’s 5000-qubit Advantage quantum annealing system is the largest system in use and it has said it will deliver a 7000-qubit system sometime in 2023/24. (Important to remember quantum annealing works very differently than the gate-based systems which must deal with active error correction.) The D-Wave annual Qubits meeting is in a couple of weeks and will likely provide more clarity around its quantum annealing system plans and progress on its gate-based system development program.

What’s more, the range of accessible qubit modalities is growing. Notably neutral atom-based qubits (e.g. Pasqal, Atom Computing, and QuEra) are joining the superconducting, trapped ion and (select) photonic platform crowd. Also, Intel says its first quantum dot-based, spin qubit device – a 12-qubit QPU – will be available to users this year – expect more spin qubit systems from other suppliers to become available in 2023.

Topological qubits based on the much-speculated on but yet-to-be-proven Marjorana particle are still missing from near-term qubit lineup. Microsoft has been Marjorana’s big champion, not least because it avoids needed error correction that is currently bedeviling other qubit modalities. All of that said, at least one of DOE’s six National QIS Research Centers (the Quantum Science Center at ORNL) has a focus on bringing topological quantum computing to life. We’ll see.

Bottom line: It’s still far from clear which qubit modalities will win and more are expected. It will be interesting to see how the spin qubit crowd, including Intel, fares. Shown below are technology roadmaps from IBM and Rigetti. D-Wave, which has added gate-based quantum development, will likely present a refreshed version of its roadmap at its upcoming Qubits meeting, January 17-19.

It’s probably noteworthy that hardware quantum advances are becoming so regular that they are being taken for granted. That may be good or bad. What’s clearly good is the attention (hardware and software) being paid to error mitigation and error correction. Likewise, there have been steady advances in learning how to cut quantum circuits into smaller pieces to allow fitting larger problems onto today’s QPUs. There have also been advancements in developing dynamic circuits – think of these as conditional circuits, roughly comparable to if/then statements, where a mid-circuit measurement determines what function is executed next.

To date, the vast majority of users/explorers gain access to quantum systems via a web portal. IBM and D-Wave do have standalone systems in a few places, but that is overwhelmingly the exception. The big cloud providers such as AWS, Google, and Microsoft have all created portals for users. Most major quantum system developers also deliver access via their own web portals. A handful of startup – Strangeworks and QMware, for example are building communities and emulating big cloud provider efforts in one or another way.

We’re a long way from having datacenter-based quantum servers, desktops, or laptops.

RELATED ARTICLE LINKS

IBM Quantum Summit: Osprey Flies; Error Handling Progress; Quantum-centric Supercomputing

QuEra’s Quest: Build a Flexible Neutral Atom-based Quantum Computer

Rigetti Readies Ankaa and Lyra Quantum Processors for 2023, Says Quantum Advantage Close

D-Wave Debuts Advantage2 Prototype; Seeks User Exploration and Feedback

Quantinuum Debuts 20-Qubit H1-1 System; JPMorgan Chase Showcases its Strength

PsiQuantum’s Path to 1 Million Qubits

IonQ, Duke Report Multi-Qubit Gate Advance for Quantum Computing

Quantum Watch: Neutral Atoms Draw Growing Attention as Promising Qubit Technology

LBNL Reports Crucial Leap in Error Mitigation for Quantum Computers

AWS Takes the Short and Long View of Quantum Computing


Broad Embrace of the Hybrid Classical-Quantum Paradigm

One of the more interesting trends last year was industry-wide embrace of the hybrid nature of quantum computing. It’s increasingly clear classical resources will be paired with quantum computing and that most applications will be parsed into pieces that are best run on classical resources and portions that can take advantage of quantum computing’s unique capabilities. IBM calls this quantum-centric supercomputing.

Europe has embraced this idea and has initiatives to integrate quantum computing into its supercomputing centers.

“We opened the Quantum Integration Center in March of 2021. Since then, we’ve been working to establish a system to seat systems. We have a superconducting qubit system that has just come in. [It’s] five qubits with our strategic partner IQM. It’s Friday, so the QPU might actually be getting placed in today and we’re starting coarse calibration. We’re also looking at different [qubit] modalities to bring in,” said Laura Schulz, head of quantum computing and technologies, Leibniz Supercomputing Centre

Laura Schulz, Leibniz Supercomputing Centre

“We are a user facility [and] looking at how we’re bringing these two communities (HPC and quantum) together. We’ve already experienced interesting challenges in terms of vocabulary understanding, process, workflows, again, like other user communities that come and start to utilize more HPC resources, we have to go through a little bit of an acclamation period to figure out how their workflows, how their behaviors can be translated or morphed into an HPC environment where HPC can accommodate them,” she said.

Riken has a somewhat similar project to integrate a link between a quantum computer and Fugaku. There are, of course, like-minded collaboration and integration efforts in the U.S. between the national QIS centers and their host DOE labs.

On the commercial vendor side, Nvidia embraced the hybrid idea and introduced its hybrid quantum-classical computing platform QODA (quantum optimized device architecture) in July. Other traditional server/chip technology vendors are likely to follow suit. Dell also has a strategy and is working on a classical-quantum interface. Expect more of these tangible efforts from traditional server/chip companies in 2023.

Meanwhile there are several quantum software start-ups targeting both application development and hybrid workflow development tools in their portfolios. Zapata’s Orchestra Studio and Agnostiq’s Covalent product come to mind. D-Wave, like others, has for some time offered hybrid solvers and recently expanded their capabilities. Its constrained quadratic model (CQM) hybrid solver can now handle optimization problems with up to 1 million variables (including continuous variables) and 100,000 constraints.

AWS launched its own hybrid offering, late in 2021. Here’s an excerpt of AWS’s description: “Amazon Braket Hybrid Jobs enables you to easily run hybrid quantum-classical algorithms such as the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) and the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA), that combine classical compute resources with quantum computing devices to optimize the performance of today’s quantum systems. With this new feature, you only have to provide your algorithm script and choose a target device — a quantum processing unit (QPU) or quantum circuit simulator. Amazon Braket Hybrid Jobs is designed to spin up the requested classical resources when your target quantum device is available, run your algorithm, and release the instances after completion so you only pay for what you use.”

As noted earlier, Swiss start-up Terra Quantum/QMware has made hybrid classical-quantum computing central to its business model. Others will do the same.

Whatever we call it, realizing the hybrid classical-quantum platform will create opportunities for virtually everyone in the IT food chain to customize their offerings for quantum applications. Expect a flood of various services and products offerings this year around enabling hybrid classical-quantum computing.

RELATED ARTICLE LINKS

Dell Builds Tech for Quantum Computers to Interface with Conventional Systems

Get Quantum Advantage without Quantum Devices? Yes, says Terra Quantum

GPUs Are Role-playing Quantum Computers

Zapata’s Orquestra Targets the Hybrid Quantum-Classical Challenge

Start-up Agnostiq Tackles HPC-Quantum Workflow


QC Market is Small but Look for Surprises (Think QRNG)

Building an accurate picture of quantum computing market revenues remains tricky. Hyperion Research reported at last month’s Q2B conference that the global QC market would reach $1.2 billion in 2025, up from $614 million in 2022. Bob Sorensen, Hyperion SVP of research and chief analyst cautioned the audience, saying it’s dangerous to project out too far because there are too many variables.

Here are a few points excerpted from the outlook’s executive summary:

  • Based on a survey of 145 respondents from 18 different countries representing 108 quantum computing suppliers, the 2022 global QC market is estimated to be worth $614 million USD in 2022.
  • The QC supplier base is a diverse group of players: 7% of surveyed firms have QC revenues expected to exceed $10 million USD in 2022; 49% have QC revenues < $500K USD, and 32% have no QC revenues.
  • In 2025, CSP-related QC activities will account for almost half of QC revenues: QC hardware revenues will compose ~35% of sector revenues.
  • Almost 75% of surveyed firms havepartnerships, primarily for access to QC hardware and software, but access to markets, verticals, and classical IT expertise also prevalent.
  • For the 108 companies represented in study, ownership is 60/40 public/private; for the private firms, nearly 40% have no plans to go public.
  • Top QC end user sectors:financial, QC R&D, and cybersecurity on top, but broad applicability is envisioned across at least 18 other sectors.

Most of these results aren’t especially surprising. It may be, though, that select niches within the quantum computing landscape do offer surprises. One is quantum random number generation (QRNG) which has for some time been regarded as a near-term, low-hanging fruit. Several companies – Zapata is one example – are leveraging QRNG from quantum computers as input into various tasks being run on classical computers to improve accuracy or enhance security. One analyst, Inside Quantum Technology Research, forecasts the QRNG market to be $1.2 billion market in 2028 and grow to $4.4 billion by 2032.

RELATED ARTICLE LINKS

Hyperion: QC Market Headed to $1.2B in 2025; Lots of Momentum but also Uncertainty

IDC Perspective on Integration of Quantum Computing and HPC

Merzbacher Q&A: Deep Dive into the Quantum Economic Development Consortium


When will POCs Transition to Real-World Applications?

Maybe this question should have been the first tackled. It’s the central question in quantum computing. When will there be practical quantum computing as opposed to lots of buzz around fascinating possibilities on the cusp of reality? The answer depends on who you talk to. For so called narrow quantum advantage – specific applications that can be performed better (cost, speed, accuracy) on a quantum computer than on a classical computer – some are claiming that’s being done today.

There is even Terra Quantum’s claim that it is running true hybrid classical-quantum algorithms on HPC-based technology and delivering value today.

“Using data for the portfolio, we deployed our developed quantum algorithm on our machine [HPC-based simulator] and are able to get six pips (price-in-point or percentage interest point) advantage at full implementation. Six pips in relation to the portfolio translates into more than 200 million annual recurring cost savings. In the future it will be 60 pips if I put it on a better, native QPU but why wait for the 60 if we can today get the six pips. That’s what we focus on [and] it’s also a little bit of the Terra Quantum USP (unique selling proposition),” CEO Pflitsch told HPCwire.

That sounds impressive, and no actual quantum device is employed. IBM is bringing online one of its Quantum System One machines at the Cleveland Clinic where IBM and the clinic hope to accelerate research. “The current pace of scientific discovery is unacceptably slow, while our research needs are growing exponentially,” said Lara Jehi, M.D., Cleveland Clinic’s Chief Research Information Officer. “We cannot afford to continue to spend a decade or more going from a research idea in a lab to therapies on the market. Quantum offers a future to transform this pace, particularly in drug discovery and machine learning.”

Hopes are high for near-term practical utility of quantum systems. Here are three more efforts at in various stages of readiness:

Murray Thom, D-Wave Systems
  • Port of Los Angeles. D-Wave has been touting a logistics use case at Pier 300 at the Port of Los Angeles. Murray Thom, D-Wave VP, product management, told HPCwire, “They are currently optimizing the way that cargo is being handled on Port 300, which is moving materials around and moving cargo containers. They’ve been able to improve cargo handling efficiency by the rubber tyred gantry (RTG) cranes by 60%, and the turnaround time for the trucks picking up those cargo containers by 12%. And they’re making calls to our quantum computer live right now, 24×7.” This application is in use today with daily calls to the D-Wave system (video of case history).
  • JPMorgan Chase. Though not as far along, the financial services giant has jumped into quantum application development with both feet. It has broken new ground on optimization and risk analysis algorithms. Marco Pistoia, a former distinguished IBM researcher who now leads JPMC’s quantum efforts said, “We’re not really solving a portfolio optimization problem that the bank is facing today, because the quantum computers are not yet big enough. But that’s okay. We know that. We just need to wait for the hardware to progress. Meanwhile, we’re not idle, waiting for this hardware to make progress.”
  • QUASIM Project. This is a project in Germany to bring quantum computing to bear in metal fabrication, in particular laser cutting. Tobias Stollenwerk, a project leader, says “Today’s quantum computers are still at an early stage of development, despite the enormous progress made in recent years. At the moment, the aim is to break the problems down to subproblems that have similar characteristics to the real tasks and that are so simple that they can be solved on the currently available quantum computers with only a few qubits.”

There many other proto projects easing into real-world production use. Expect 2023 to be a year more and more of these use cases transition from POC to commercial; they will be loudly trumpeted by quantum technology suppliers.

RELATED ARTICLE LINKS

Get Quantum Advantage without Quantum Devices? Yes, says Terra Quantum

Quantum – Are We There (or Close) Yet? No, Says the Panel

JPMorgan Chase Bets Big on Quantum Computing

Dell, AMD, IBM, and Strangeworks Dig into Quantum’s Future

Cutting Better with Quantum Computing: How the QUASIM Project Brings Quantum Computing and Metal Processing Together


Chasing Post Quantum Security

Now that the National Institute of Technology Standards has issued the first selected algorithms from the post quantum cryptography standardization project (PQC) the race to deliver new tools and guidance is on in earnest. NIST’s National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence (NCCoE) has begun a project – Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography – that includes 14 companies to develop specific tools.

Here’s a snapshot of the program’s main goals:

  • Demonstrate the use of automated discovery tools to identify instances of quantum-vulnerable public-key algorithm use, where they are used in dependent systems, and for what purposes.
  • Once the public-key cryptography components and associated assets in the enterprise are identified, the next project element is prioritizing those applications that need to be considered first in migration planning.
  • Finally, the project will describe systematic approaches for migrating from vulnerable algorithms to quantum-resistant algorithms across different types of organizations, assets, and supporting technologies.

NIST issued a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) to work on the project and last week disclosed the list of vendors who’ve signed on to participate so far: Amazon Web Services, Inc. (AWS), Cisco Systems, Inc., Crypto4A Technologies, Inc., Cryptosense SAInfoSec Global, ISARA Corporation, MicrosoftSamsung SDS Co., Ltd., SandboxAQ, Thales DIS CPL USA, Inc., and Thales Trusted Cyber Technologies, VMware, Inc.

Many other vendors, Dell and IBM, for example, are ramping up their own PCQ services and tools. Likewise, all of the big consulting firms, Deloitte for example, are ramping up practices. Expect a flood of these offerings in 2023.

It’s been reported that more than 20 billion devices will need to upgrade their software to PQC before quantum computers crack RSA encryption. “Adversaries are already engaged in Store Now Decrypt Later (SNDL) attacks – stealing and storing encrypted data (e.g., financial records, intellectual property, medical records, etc.) to crack and exploit later when quantum computers become readily available,” says Google spinout, SandBoxAQ, a CRADA participant.

While this is not strictly speaking a quantum computing project, there are many other quantum key distribution projects and broader quantum networking that do leverage quantum information science for security purposes.

RELATED ARTICLE LINKS

CEO Jack Hidary on SandboxAQ’s Ambitions and Near-term Milestones

The Race to Ensure Post Quantum Data Security

Intel Warns of Data Security Crisis Posed by Quantum Computers

Biden Issues Executive Order Bolstering National Quantum Initiative and Cybersecurity

National Security Memorandum on Promoting United States Leadership in Quantum Computing While Mitigating Risks to Vulnerable Cryptographic Systems


Conclusion: No One is Getting Rich Yet, but Some Will

No doubt there are a few charlatans in the clamorous quantum crowd, but by and large the rapidly expanding commercial quantum landscape is full of companies – hardware, software, facilitators – who believe in their diverse approaches and are pursuing them with the single-minded determination necessary to succeed. Notably, whatever stage any of these companies is at today, they all harbor much larger ambitions for the future.

Nevertheless, they won’t all thrive and some will go broke. It’s tempting to wonder if there could be a shuffling of leading players as more options – particularly non-superconducting and non-ion trap modalities – gain wider exposure and use.

I like this statement from Chad Rigetti, founder and CEO of Rigetti Computing, made last at an investor event last fall at Rigetti’s San Francisco area fab:

Chad Rigetti, CEO

“We believe we’re beginning to get within sight of narrow quantum advantage – the next phase in the industry. In this phase, you go beyond iterating on applications and ultimately are beginning to deliver to end customers computational value beyond their best alternative, purely classical solution – thereby delivering better, faster time to solution, improved accuracy, or lower cost of solution. But going beyond narrow QA, there’s another phase and another inflection point: and that is broad quantum advantage.

“In the broad quantum advantage phase, quantum computers will begin to solve problems that are fundamentally out of reach of all forms of classical computing – no matter how big and how expensive of a classical computer you might build. And this phase will start to grow the market for computing overall, because you’re bringing workflows that are not currently addressed with any form of computing into a computational solution for the first time, only enabled by quantum computing. This is the phase where we believe we can start seeing new discoveries and new creative insights that advance human society and unlock this true deep potential that we see in quantum computing.”

This feels mostly right to me. An interesting side note is this observation from Intel’s Clarke’s, “Our vision would be an Intel quantum computer tied to an Intel supercomputer. In fact, the bill of materials of that overall larger system might reside more in the supercomputer than in the quantum compute part.”

It’s true there are many moving parts at various stages of development in quantum computing. Many are still quite nascent. But there are enough efforts that seem ready to deliver narrow quantum advantage soon – whether on quantum hardware alone or some version of hybrid classical-quantum “platforms” or on simulators running on HPC resources alone. At this point, after all the hand-wringing, a total commercial collapse seems unlikely.

Lastly, lest we take ourselves too seriously, don’t forget a report made a year ago in January that some scientists claimed to have actually entangled a tiny creature – the Tardigrade. Like everyone else, HPCwire didn’t take the claim too seriously (HPCwire coverage, You Must be Kidding – Quantum Entangled Water Bears?!) Ok then.

Stay tuned.

 

Endnote:

(1) Dario Gil Keynote, IBM Quantum Summit, 2022, “So I want to close by asking of ourselves, the progress that we’re seeing in the field, and how and whether quantum computing is now an industry. And I would argue that the progress that we’re seeing is undeniable and the answer is yes. If you look from a venture capital perspective, and we have a wonderful collection of startups in here, the growth of investments that is happening to both software and hardware companies. On top of that, of course, we would have to add the investments that major technology companies like IBM are making in the field as well.

“The progress is undeniable, in terms of the level of interest, the investment and the talent that is coming into the field, you’re seeing it in the development of intellectual property and patents in the space and how it is growing. Again, the progress in that is undeniable, this is all fed by advances in the scientific community to think through and create new ideas and push the limits forward. You’re seeing this also in the growth of publications related to quantum computing. Across all of these spaces, we are seeing and we are a proud member of that industry, and to push the frontiers of the quantum industry.”

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